Sunflower Market Split: Premium Seed Prices Hold as Ordinary Grades Soften

The sunflower market is undergoing an intense polarization: premium-quality sunflower supplies remain in high demand and maintain stable prices, while ordinary-grade supplies are weighed down by abundant availability and a lack of robust consumption recovery. This divergence has rendered product quality the decisive factor influencing trading pace and price trends. Export demand for high-quality Chinese sunflower has potential due to weather-impacted crops from major overseas suppliers, yet meaningful increases are still limited by global stock levels and soft domestic orders. As policies, overseas inventories, and tepid terminal demand exert pressure, price action remains subdued. Most trade is negotiated and prices show little volatility. Barring significant shifts in global supply or inventory drawdowns, expect the status quo—firm pricing for select quality and subdued rates for ordinary grades—to persist in the near term.

📈 Current Market Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Update Date	Sentiment
Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	UA	Odesa (FOB)	FOB	0.55	0.56	2025-12-05	Weak
Sunflower kernels, meal	UA	Odesa (FOB)	FOB	0.54	0.55	2025-12-05	Soft
Sunflower seeds, striped, 98%	BG	Sofia (FOB)	FOB	0.61	0.51	2025-12-04	Firm
Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	UA	Kyiv (FCA)	FCA	0.62	0.61	2025-12-04	Stable
Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	UA	Odesa (FCA)	FCA	0.61	0.61	2025-12-04	Stable
Sunflower seeds, black w/stripe	CN	Beijing (FOB)	FOB	1.57	1.57	2025-12-04	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• China’s market is sharply split: premium supplies remain in demand and hold value; average grades are oversupplied and weak.
• Domestic consumption remains sluggish, perpetuating surplus pressure for lower grades.
• Overseas, some major producing countries report yield and quality losses, which is quietly supporting export quotes for premium Chinese supplies.
• Long-term contracting has declined compared to the previous year; most sales are now spot or via short-term deals supported by exhibition orders.
• Policy interventions and global stock levels limit room for a strong rebound in prices.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• USDA Outlook: The USDA projects global sunflower production near multi-year highs, but with notable losses in Ukraine and Russia due to adverse weather. EU production is steady; Chinese output is stable, but quality polarization persists.
• Inventories: Global ending stocks remain ample, especially for ordinary grades, limiting further upside unless consumption recovers or weather impacts worsen in key regions.
• Speculative Positioning: Little speculative interest in sunflower due to the lack of directional drivers and broad oilseed weakness.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• Ukraine: Mixed rainfall—some yield recovery, but quality concerns linger after late-season dryness. Early frost risk is low for now.
• Russia: Dry, cool conditions in major growing regions may reduce final yields and impact oil content.
• China: Weather has favored quality in some regions but was highly variable; premium grades see greater support as a result.
• Balkans: Generally favorable finishing weather, though isolated storms caused minor yield losses.

🌍 Production and Stocks – Key Countries Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (MMT)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (MMT)	Key Notes
Ukraine	13.5	1.6	Quality concerns, some losses from drought
Russia	15.0	2.0	Cool, dry finish; stocks ample
China	2.9	0.35	Output stable, strong grade differentiation
EU	10.2	1.1	Stable, good quality

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Premium, high-grade sunflower remains supported—hold or seek quality-oriented trades.
• Ordinary grades face ongoing oversupply and weak demand. Consider just-in-time purchasing; avoid speculative stockpiling.
• Exporters: Monitor overseas crop/weather for potential spikes in international demand; react quickly if significant disruptions occur.
• Buyers: Price risk for ordinary grades is limited to the downside; negotiate firmly.
• Overall: No strong drivers on the horizon—expect a rangebound, negotiated market near current levels unless weather shocks intensify.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast Range	Trend
Odesa (UA, FOB)	0.55	0.54–0.56	Rangebound/Weak
Sofia (BG, FOB)	0.61	0.60–0.62	Stable/Firm
Beijing (CN, FOB)	1.57	1.56–1.58	Stable