Thai Rice Faces Downward Pressure as Buyers Await Lower Global Prices

Thailand’s rice market is heading into a softer phase, shaped by a combination of strong currency, vigorous export competition, and tempered international demand. Recent assessments from the USDA Grain and Feed Monthly report reveal heightened caution among buyers at the start of 2026, who are postponing purchases in anticipation of a broad-based price drop. At the heart of these developments is the Thai baht, whose appreciation to 30–31 per U.S. dollar has eroded Thailand’s trade advantage against rival exporters Vietnam and India. Seasonal slack, coinciding with the Lunar New Year, has further cooled demand. While Thai farmers have modestly increased off-season rice planting, the pace of the country’s exports lags substantially behind last year, suggesting the global market could see softer prices for the foreseeable future—especially as traders wait for clearer signals. Overall, market participants face a dynamic scenario where expanding supply and intensifying competition meet tepid importer appetite and a strong domestic currency.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Closing Price (EUR/kg, FOB)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Thailand	5% Broken	Bangkok	0.34* (approx. $370/ton)	–	Bearish
India	All Golden, Sella	New Delhi	0.97	No change	Stable/Soft
India	Al Isteam, Sharbati	New Delhi	0.64	No change	Stable
Vietnam	Long White 5%	Hanoi	0.49	No change	Competitive

*Exchange rate 1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Exporters Hold Back: Early 2026 saw buyers delay Thai rice purchases due to expectations of further global price declines.
• Currency Factor: Thai baht’s appreciation made Thai rice less attractive compared to Vietnamese and Indian offers.
• Demand Slowdown: Lunar New Year typically brings a seasonal dip; this year, it coincides with strategic buying behavior.
• Thai Production: 2025/26 off-season planting up slightly from previous year—11.4 million rai (~1.82 million ha), signaling stable or rising domestic supply.
• Weak Exports: Thai rice exports Jan–Feb 2026: 417,000 tons (down 31% from 605,000 last year), underscoring global demand softness.

📊 Fundamentals

• Thai 5% broken rice averaged $370/ton in Jan–early Feb 2026.
• Currency strength (30–31 baht/USD) erodes export competitiveness.
• Vietnam and India are capturing buyers with lower-priced alternatives; India’s FOB offers remain around 0.47–0.97 EUR/kg for key types, and Vietnamese long white rice at 0.49 EUR/kg.
• Rising Thai acreage suggests little near-term shortage risk.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Thailand: Current off-season planting conditions mostly favorable; no immediate severe weather threats reported. Should conditions hold, yield prospects are stable for the coming months.
• Vietnam/India: Weather largely supportive, aiding export competition with Thailand.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparisons

• Thailand: Planting slightly ahead of 2025, supply outlook stable/rising.
• Vietnam & India: Both countries remain aggressive on exports. Prices and strong supply allow them to outcompete Thailand on key grades.
• Importers: Indonesia and the Philippines: monitored for any uptick in demand, which could shift near-term price direction.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Sentiment is bearish for Thai rice as buyers continue to sit on the sidelines.
• Wait-and-see strategy dominates; buyers expect more favorable prices ahead.
• Traders: Consider holding off on large purchases until clearer signals on floor price formation.
• Exporters: Monitor baht dynamics and Southeast Asian competitive offers closely.
• Weather stability and rising plantings mean supply risks are low in the short term.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Export Hub	Product	Current (€/kg)	3-Day Outlook
Bangkok	Thai 5% Broken	~0.34	Soft/Flat
New Delhi	All Golden, Sella	0.97	Flat/Weak
Hanoi	Long White 5%	0.49	Soft/Competitive