In the February report, USDA experts forecasted a reduction in sunflower production for Argentina and Russia. And it is quite possible that this tendency will continue in future forecasts as well. The overall sunflower balance for 2022/23 MY will worsen.
Production
The forecast for world sunflower production in 2022/23 is reduced to 50.77 million tons. In 2021/22 it was 57.31 million tons and 49.2 million tons in 2020/21. In particular for Argentina to 4.4 million tons and the Russian Federation to 16 million tons. Although according to Rosstat, 15.3 million tons and 1 million hectares remained unharvested. For Ukraine, the harvest forecast increased to 10.4 million tons.
Export and end stocks
Sunflower export forecast in 2022/23 reduced for Argentina by 50 thousand tons to 200 thousand tons. At the same time, it increased for Ukraine by 0.2 million tons to a record 2.65 million tons. As a result of active exports from Ukraine, the import forecast for the EU increased by 50 thousand tons to 2.9 million tons.
Ukraine continues to restore energy supply to industrial enterprises, which improves the prospects for sunflower processing. So the estimate of domestic processing is increased by 0.5 million tons to 10 million tons.
The forecast of world ending stocks of sunflower reduced by 0.88 million tons to 4.85 million tons (8 million tons in 2021/22 and 2.6 million tons in 2020/21). For Ukraine – by 0.3 to 1.85 (4.69) million tons and the Russian Federation – by 0.5 to 0.74 (0.96) million tons.
Purchasing prices in Ukraine
Purchasing prices for sunflower seeds in Ukraine during the week fell by 500-1000 UAH/t to 17000-17500 UAH/t or 455-470 $/t with delivery to the plant due to a delay in vessels entering the Black Sea ports and a slowdown in the export of meal and oil. But over the month, sunflower prices rose by 3-5%.f
The acceleration of sunflower exports in early January led to an increase in purchase prices by processors, so resolving the issue of vessels calling at ports will immediately increase demand for sunflower.