On October 24, the Kiev branch of the USDA released a report in which it forecasts an increase in corn production in Ukraine in 2023/24. Ukraine corn and wheat stocks are higher than in the past, so export volumes will determine ending stocks for the 2023/24 season. Russia withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023 has complicated grain exports from Ukraine. But Ukraine continues to expand alternative supply routes.
According to the USDA it is expected that in 2023/24 Ukraine will harvest 30.7 million tons of corn. This is 17% higher than in 2022/23 and 10% higher than the October USDA forecast of 28 million tons.
As of October 20, thanks to dry and warm weather, Ukrainian agrarians harvested 9.28 million tons of corn from 1.376 million hectares or 34% of the area. Last year on this date only 20% of the area.was harvested.
Due to the limited supply and increased entries of vessels to ports for loading, purchasing prices for corn in the Black Sea ports, after falling last week, increased again to 125-130 $/t. While in the Danube ports they reach 135-140 $/t.
Ukrainian corn remains the cheapest on the world market, so it will continue to benefit from demand. However, price growth will be limited as world prices will remain under pressure from the record global harvest.