Tight Supply and Firm Prices: Bean Market Faces Inventory Pressure

The beans market is at a pivotal point, with both domestic and international supply constraints supporting a generally firm price environment. Based on direct market feedback as of March 5, less than 40% of China’s 2023/24 mung bean crop inventory remains, and farmers are showing reluctance to sell. This wariness—combined with logistics challenges—means grain merchants face real difficulty sourcing product. While processing activities for many grain merchants have shifted to relying on existing stocks, overall order volumes remain muted. Demand is described as steady but cautious, as end-users and wholesalers procure what they need and maintain adequate inventories but avoid aggressive buying.

Looking abroad, Uzbekistan also reports limited inventories of mung beans. By the end of February, Chinese domestic supply was still above 100,000 tonnes, suggesting some buffer, yet the segment for commercial-grade beans is notably tight. This squeeze has driven up prices, particularly as importers stand firm and a trend of shifting beans originally grown for sprouting over to commercial sales emerges. That said, the market has not tipped into excessively bullish territory, as significant stockpiles and conservative downstream procurement temper the upside.

Short-term, both Chinese and Uzbek suppliers appear committed to stable pricing, with forecasts holding steady at $1,970 and $1,720/tonne FOB, respectively. The following market analysis explores these dynamics in greater detail and provides actionable insights based on the solid foundation of direct qualitative and quantitative feedback from the market.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Type	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Change	Date	Sentiment
Mung beans (organic)	CN	99.5% purity	1.56	1.58	-0.02	2026-03-05	Firm
Mung beans (3.8 mm+)	CN	99.5% purity	1.49	1.49	0.00	2026-03-05	Steady
Kidney beans (small, black, organic)	CN	99.5% purity	1.10	1.13	-0.03	2026-03-05	Slightly weaker

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China: As of early March, less than 40% of the domestic mung bean supply remains unsold. Many farmers are holding out for better prices, slowing the inflow of product to market. Grain merchants are now primarily processing off existing inventory; new orders are modest in volume.
• Uzbekistan: Inventory also tightening, further constraining global supply. This has particular influence on export pricing and willingness of sellers to negotiate.
• Demand: Wholesalers and sprouting-bean processors buy only what they need, having sufficient stocks and limited immediate urgency. Some stock conversion from sprouting to commercial specifications noted, supporting the price floor.

📊 Fundamentals

• Key drivers:
  • Tightened inventories on both domestic and export markets
  • Reluctance among farmers to sell at current levels
  • Stability in wholesale and industrial demand
  • Importers and exporters holding firm on pricing
• Industry forecasts from key market intelligence sources expect a steady price through the coming week for both China ($1,970/tonne FOB) and Uzbekistan ($1,720/tonne FOB).

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Unseasonal adverse weather is not currently reported in China’s main mung bean production regions, suggesting no new harvest threats in the near term (based on best available public sources).
• Uzbekistan’s current weather patterns also appear uneventful for beans, maintaining supply stability for now.

🌏 Global Production & Inventory Comparison

• China: Over 100,000 tonnes of supply estimated at end-February, but much of it in farmers’ hands. Marketable stock for commercial and export use is notably tight.
• Uzbekistan: Domestic inventories low, and most readily tradable stock already committed for export/processing.
• Other Producers: Brazil and the UK are present in global trading but currently play a lesser role in these market dynamics.

⚡ Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term stability is likely, with limited risk of sharp price movement either way.
• Procurement should focus on locking in quantities if steady pricing is available, as the supply side supports a firm market floor.
• Farmers and stockholders should monitor for demand upticks, as a shift in wholesaler activity could quickly tighten remaining stocks and push prices higher.
• Importers facing steady or firm prices in China and Uzbekistan should anticipate mature sellers and little discounting.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB, indicative)

Region	Product	Today	+1 Day	+2 Days	+3 Days
China (Beijing)	Mung beans (organic)	€1.56	€1.56	€1.56	€1.56
China (Beijing)	Mung beans (3.8mm+)	€1.49	€1.49	€1.49	€1.49
China (Beijing)	Kidney beans (small, black, organic)	€1.10	€1.10	€1.10	€1.10