Turkish Dried Apricots Hold Firm as Bloom Advances and Stocks Remain Tight

Turkish dried apricot prices are broadly steady at historically elevated levels, with no notable moves since mid‑March and only marginal weakness on some EU FCA positions. Tight raw‑material availability after last year’s frost‑hit crop and still‑healthy European demand are keeping the market well supported despite stable FOB quotes.

The market for Turkish dried apricots is currently in a consolidation phase. In Malatya and Ankara, FOB prices for both sulphured and unsulphured material have been flat since mid‑March, while FCA prices for cubes in the Netherlands and bulk in Poland show only minor adjustments, mostly within a few eurocents per kilo. Bloom has now started in key producing regions such as Elazig, and near‑term weather around Malatya looks seasonally cool but largely frost‑free, reducing immediate production risk. However, global buyers remain cautious: stocks are limited after last season’s severe frost, and international commodity reports still describe Q1 2026 dried apricot prices as “high and firm” due to restricted Turkish supply and reduced export volumes.

📈 Prices & Spreads

FOB Malatya prices in EUR for conventional sulphured fruit are stable: No. 8 around EUR 6.30/kg, No. 6 at EUR 6.90/kg, No. 4 at EUR 7.50/kg and No. 1 at EUR 8.70/kg. Unsulphured conventional grades range roughly from EUR 7.80/kg (No. 5) to EUR 8.65–8.55/kg for the larger sizes. Organic unsulphured lots maintain a clear premium, with top sizes quoted around EUR 10.20–10.35/kg FOB. These levels have been unchanged since at least 19 March, confirming a sideways pattern.

In Europe, FCA prices for Turkish-origin cubes in the Netherlands are modestly firmer versus mid‑March, with most sizes up about EUR 0.10/kg, while Polish FCA prices for low‑grade No. 8 material eased by around EUR 0.10/kg, suggesting some competitive pressure on the lowest quality segment. Overall, the flat FOB structure and only cosmetic moves on FCA positions point to a market that is balanced but still constrained by limited raw material and cautious forward selling.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Crop Context

Turkey remains by far the key dried apricot origin, with Malatya alone accounting for around half of national apricot production and the majority of sundried output. However, the sector is still digesting the impact of the severe April 2025 frosts, which nearly wiped out the 2025/26 crop in Malatya and cut Turkey’s dried apricot production to an estimated 2,000 tonnes, versus more than 100,000 tonnes in a normal year. International commodity reports and market analyses state that this shock, together with only moderate carryover stocks, has kept Q1 2026 dried apricot prices high and stock levels tight, with some buyers switching partially to alternative origins like Uzbekistan and Iran.

On the demand side, European consumption has been relatively resilient. Retail demand for dried fruit in the EU, particularly in Germany, the Netherlands and Eastern Europe, remains solid, helped by health‑food positioning and its use in bakery and confectionery mixes. With Ramadan and Easter demand largely priced in and shipped, near‑term export flows are expected to stay steady rather than accelerate sharply. Some importers, facing high prices and limited Turkish availability, continue to manage down inventories instead of rebuilding stocks aggressively, which explains the current sideways price action.

☀️ Weather & New‑Crop Outlook (TR)

Weather in Malatya for the next three days (2–4 April) is forecast to be mostly cool and stable: cloudy with occasional light showers on 2 April, followed by partly sunny conditions with daytime highs around 12–15°C and nighttime lows near 4–5°C. These temperatures remain above critical frost thresholds for most apricot orchards, reducing the immediate risk of repeat catastrophic damage during early spring phenological stages.

Recent images and reports from nearby Elazig show apricot orchards in full bloom as of 30 March 2026, with growers starting plant‑health treatments and no mention of significant frost damage so far this season. While the sector remains highly sensitive to any late‑season cold snaps given last year’s experience, current conditions support a cautiously optimistic outlook for the 2026/27 crop. A normal harvest would gradually ease the extreme tightness in global supply, but this will only impact physical availability and prices from late 2026 onward.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stocks: Industry data indicate that Turkey entered the 2025/26 season with unusually low beginning stocks and an almost totally destroyed new crop, leaving the market heavily reliant on carryover and alternative origins.
• Trade flows: Export statistics up to late 2025 show Turkish dried apricot shipments running well below historic norms, reflecting physical scarcity and very high prices.
• Competing origins: Uzbekistan and Iran have partially filled the gap with larger crops, but their combined additional exports are insufficient to fully offset Turkey’s shortfall, keeping global supply structurally tight.
• Macro & FX: Continued volatility in the Turkish lira and elevated domestic inflation feed into exporters’ pricing strategies, encouraging them to hold firm on USD/EUR denominated offers despite some softening in broader agricultural commodities.

📆 Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Over the coming 3–4 weeks, Turkish dried apricot prices are likely to remain range‑bound at current elevated levels. The key watchpoints are: (1) any unexpected frost or cold wave in Malatya during flowering and fruit set; (2) changes in exporter selling interest as they assess remaining stock coverage; and (3) the pace of European demand after the current religious holiday period.

• Importers (EU / UK): Maintain at least normal coverage through Q3 2026 at today’s FOB levels, especially for organic and large‑size unsulphured grades, which would tighten first in the event of renewed weather issues.
• Packers & retailers: Consider modest forward buying of standard sulphured grades while the market is flat; avoid over‑stocking low‑grade material where FCA competition is softening slightly.
• Producers & exporters (TR): With tight stocks and stable overseas demand, there is little incentive to discount. Focus on quality differentiation and timely shipment; only lower offers if new‑crop prospects improve markedly and are confirmed by mid‑spring.

📍 3‑Day Indicative Price Direction (TR)

Product	Location / Term	Current Level (EUR/kg)	3‑Day View
Dried apricots, sulphured No. 4	Malatya, FOB	≈ 7.50	Stable
Dried apricots, unsulphured No. 4	Malatya, FOB	≈ 8.00	Stable
Dried apricots, organic unsulphured No. 1–3	Malatya/Ankara, FOB	≈ 9.30–10.20	Stable to slightly firm
Dried apricots, cubes (various sizes)	Dordrecht (NL), FCA	≈ 5.5–6.4	Stable to slightly firm
Dried apricots, No. 8 TR‑1123	Lodz (PL), FCA	≈ 5.15	Slightly soft