The turmeric market is currently navigating a challenging environment marked by sluggish demand, increased supplies, and downward pressure on prices. Over the past week, New Delhi spot prices for turmeric have softened by around $3.60 per quintal, falling from $157.20 to $153.60 per quintal. Market arrivals have surged, with inflows up by about 1,700 bags daily, heightening the already bearish sentiment across trading hubs. Futures at the Nizamabad market have also declined sharply, settling near $141.40 per quintal following a drop of $24.50, reinforcing expectations of continued weakness.
Traders report that subdued interest from both buyers and stockists is inhibiting any significant upward movement, with most analysts forecasting a range-bound market over the next five to seven days. Sufficient supplies out of major producing states in India, coupled with only steady to weak off-take from domestic and export consumers, underpin this tepid outlook.
In sum, market participants should brace for persistently soft prices in the short term, with opportunities likely limited to opportunistic buying on dips. Ongoing harvesting and steady inventories further dampen prospects for a near-term rebound in values.
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Turmeric whole
FOB 2.57 €/kg
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FOB 3.40 €/kg
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Turmeric dried
finger salem,double polished, grade A
FOB 1.62 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Current Turmeric Market Overview
| Product | Origin | Location | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turmeric whole (organic) | IN | New Delhi | 2.57 | 2.57 | 0% | Neutral/Bearish |
| Turmeric powder (organic) | IN | New Delhi | 3.40 | 3.40 | 0% | Neutral/Bearish |
| Turmeric dried, Salem grade A | IN | Telangana | 1.62 | 1.62 | 0% | Neutral/Bearish |
| Turmeric dried, Nizamabad grade A | IN | Telangana | 1.52 | 1.52 | 0% | Neutral/Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Arrivals Up: Daily arrivals surged by 1,700 bags, lifting total available supply and keeping prices on the back foot.
- Bare Stockist Interest: Traders and stockists are largely adopting a wait-and-see approach, putting a lid on demand-side support.
- Export Demand: Remains stable to weak, with no significant export-led buying reported from major international markets.
- Harvest Season: Major producing states have seen robust arrivals as the harvest continues, further pressuring spot prices.
📊 Market Fundamentals & Comparison
- Versus Previous Report: The latest vector search and our prior report confirm persistent weakness, extending losses seen in end-September and early October.
- Futures Market: Nizamabad turmeric futures slid by $24.50 per quintal, mirroring the overall bearish trend.
- Inventories: Sufficient inventories cushion the market from any short-term supply disruption and discourage aggressive spot buying.
- Speculative Activity: Positioning remains light as speculative traders await clearer signals on a market bottom.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Impact
- Southern India: Latest weather data indicates normal to slightly above-average precipitation in Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, which supports continued turmeric harvesting and may boost quality and yield.
- Possible Concern: Excess rain could hinder drying and logistics, but forecasts suggest manageable conditions over the next week.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks Overview
| Country | 2024 Estimated Output (tonnes) | Stock (tonnes) |
|---|---|---|
| India | ~960,000 | High |
| Bangladesh | ~187,000 | Moderate |
| Myanmar | ~90,000 | Moderate |
| Ethiopia | ~80,000 | Low |
| Indonesia | ~48,000 | Low |
📉 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Spot and futures prices likely to remain under pressure for the next 3–7 days, especially amid soft demand and high arrivals.
- Buyers advised to adopt a wait-and-watch approach; only opportunistic buying on price dips is recommended.
- Sellers should consider hedging or calibrated selling to protect against further downside.
- Monitor weather developments in key Indian regions, as unexpected adverse conditions could quickly change fundamentals.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Product | Price Range (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi | Whole/Powder | 2.54 – 2.60 | Weak to Neutral |
| Telangana (Nizamabad/Salem) | Dried (Grade A) | 1.48 – 1.64 | Bearish |
| Nizamabad (Futures) | Spot Futures | 135 – 142 (USD/quintal) | Bearish |
Short-term risks remain skewed to the downside as increased arrivals meet only moderate demand. Price recovery will require either stronger export buying or a weather event impacting supply flows.
