The turmeric market is currently navigating a complex landscape marked by both bullish and bearish factors. Despite a notable increase in arrivals at major mandis, prices have remained firm, underpinned by mounting concerns over lower production for the 2024/25 season. Acreage under turmeric has expanded by 10% year-on-year, reaching 3.30 lakh hectares, but this positive development is overshadowed by unseasonal rains—particularly in the Nanded region—leading to crop rot, small rhizome formation, and an anticipated 10-15% decline in yields. As harvesting advances, the true extent of crop losses will become clearer, but the market is already reacting to these uncertainties.
On the supply side, arrivals have surged to 57,500 quintals versus 29,860 quintals last season, exerting downward pressure on prices and limiting upside momentum. Meanwhile, export demand remains relatively healthy, with an 11.51% year-on-year increase in shipments for April–February 2025, though a recent 2.97% monthly decline in February signals emerging softness. Weak export enquiries and ample arrivals are tempering bullish sentiment, even as production risks persist. The interplay of these factors is keeping the turmeric market in a state of cautious equilibrium, with participants closely monitoring weather developments and export trends for further cues.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Turmeric whole
FOB 2.73 €/kg
(from IN)
Turmeric powder
FOB 3.54 €/kg
(from IN)
Turmeric dried
finger salem,double polished, grade A
FOB 1.73 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Location | Type/Grade | Organic | Latest Price (USD/kg) | Previous Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turmeric whole | New Delhi, IN | – | Yes | 2.73 | 2.71 | +0.74 | Steady/Firm |
| Turmeric powder | New Delhi, IN | – | Yes | 3.54 | 3.52 | +0.57 | Steady/Firm |
| Turmeric dried (finger salem, grade A) | Telangana, IN | Salem, double polished, A | No | 1.73 | 1.71 | +1.17 | Steady/Firm |
| Turmeric dried (finger nizamabad, grade A) | Telangana, IN | Nizamabad, double polished, A | No | 1.68 | 1.66 | +1.20 | Steady/Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Acreage: Up 10% YoY to 3.30 lakh ha (from 3 lakh ha last year)
- Production Outlook: Yields expected to decline 10-15% due to unseasonal rains and crop rot, especially in Nanded
- Arrivals: 57,500 quintals this season vs 29,860 quintals last season (harvest peak)
- Exports: Up 11.51% YoY (April–Feb 2025: 1.61 lakh tonnes); Feb 2025 down 2.97% MoM
- Export Demand: Recent softness in export enquiries, but overall demand remains robust
📊 Fundamentals
- Production Risks: Weather-induced yield losses, small rhizomes, and crop rot are key concerns
- Supply Pressure: Large arrivals during the harvest season are capping price gains
- Demand Side: Export growth strong YoY, but recent slowdown signals caution
- Speculative Activity: Market participants are cautious, awaiting clarity on final crop size and quality
☁️ Weather Outlook
- Recent Weather: Unseasonal rains in Maharashtra (Nanded region) causing crop rot and yield loss
- Forecast (Next 7 days): Mostly dry to partly cloudy in key turmeric belts of Telangana and Maharashtra; limited rainfall expected, which should aid harvest progress but may not reverse earlier crop damage
- Impact: No further major weather threats seen in the immediate term, but crop quality concerns linger due to earlier excess rainfall
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023/24 Production (est., ‘000 tonnes) | 2024/25 Production (proj., ‘000 tonnes) | Stock Change YoY (%) | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 1,180 | 1,100–1,150 | -3 to -7 | Largest producer; weather-hit crop, lower yields |
| Bangladesh | 140 | 145 | +3.6 | Stable output, minor growth |
| Myanmar | 90 | 90 | 0 | Steady |
| Indonesia | 50 | 50 | 0 | Steady |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor arrivals and harvest progress in Maharashtra and Telangana for further cues on crop losses.
- Watch export enquiry trends—any pickup could revive bullish sentiment.
- Procurement recommended on dips, especially for exporters, given medium-term supply-side risks.
- Short-term price action likely to remain rangebound amid high arrivals and cautious demand.
- Weather developments remain a key risk—stay alert for any further unseasonal rainfall in key regions.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Location | Current Price (USD/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (USD/kg) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turmeric whole | New Delhi | 2.73 | 2.70 – 2.75 | Sideways/Firm |
| Turmeric powder | New Delhi | 3.54 | 3.52 – 3.57 | Sideways/Firm |
| Turmeric dried (finger salem, grade A) | Telangana | 1.73 | 1.71 – 1.75 | Sideways/Firm |
| Turmeric dried (finger nizamabad, grade A) | Telangana | 1.68 | 1.66 – 1.70 | Sideways/Firm |
