Turmeric Market Powers Ahead: Demand and Steady Arrivals Support Firm Prices

The turmeric market continues to display notable resilience and upward bias, defying typical post-rally corrections. As of the latest session, prices have inched higher on both spot and futures markets, owing much to persistent demand from stockists and supportive fundamentals. In the key Erode market, turmeric rose from $152.40 to $153.50 per 100 kg, a clear sign of consistent buying interest even after recent advances. Meanwhile, the NCDEX futures contract logged a 1.42% daily gain, closing at $172.00 per 100 kg, mirroring underlying market optimism.

Analysts cite two major drivers behind this firmness: robust domestic demand and steady market arrivals. Market players report that buyers are keen to secure supplies amid expectations of steady or slightly improving consumption trends going into the next quarter. Given the market’s current posture, turmeric is likely to maintain its elevated tone in the near term. Additionally, current export offers in New Delhi and Telangana remain stable, reflecting a balanced global perspective. Today’s weather outlook, crucial for India—the world’s largest turmeric producer—shows favorable conditions, hinting at limited supply disruptions in the immediate future. For traders and stakeholders, the strategic focus will be on monitoring demand trends and monsoonal developments.

📈 Prices

Market/Exchange	Product	Location	Price (per 100 kg)	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Erode Spot	Turmeric	Erode (IN)	153.50	152.40	+1.20	USD	Firm
NCDEX	Turmeric Futures	IN (National)	172.00	169.59	+2.41	USD	Bullish
Export Offer	Turmeric whole (organic)	New Delhi, IN	2.55	2.55	0.00	EUR	Steady
Export Offer	Turmeric powder (organic)	New Delhi, IN	3.38	3.38	0.00	EUR	Steady
Export Offer	Turmeric dried Salem (non-organic)	Telangana, IN	1.60	1.60	0.00	EUR	Steady
Export Offer	Turmeric dried Nizamabad (non-organic)	Telangana, IN	1.50	1.50	0.00	EUR	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Demand strength: Driven by stockist purchases and consistent retail & export inquiries.
• Steady arrivals: No sharp surge in arrivals, helping prevent price corrections.
• Export flows: Stable export offers; Indian product remains competitive.
• India’s role: As the world’s largest producer, India’s supply trajectory is critical for global price discovery.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA & acreage reports: No major negative surprises in recently released crop projections.
• Global stocks: Inventories remain at comfortable levels, but firm demand is absorbing new supplies smoothly.
• Speculative positions: NCDEX futures indicate mildly bullish speculative sentiment.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• India (Telangana & Erode): Weather remains supportive; monsoonal rains slightly above long-term averages—helpful for crop development but could increase risk of short-term logistical delays if heavy precipitation persists.
• Risk assessment: No immediate drought/heatwave threats detected; close monitoring recommended through the peak monsoon period.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2023 Production (estimated, 000 MT)	Stocks (2023/24, 000 MT)
India	1,150	140
Bangladesh	180	20
Myanmar	160	15
Vietnam	70	5

📆 Trading Outlook

• 📢 Short term: Prices expected to remain firm; consider holding existing long positions with a close stop-loss below support zones.
• 📢 Medium term: Watch for changes in arrival patterns and updated monsoon forecasts; persistent rainfall could impact supply logistics.
• 📢 Producers: Look for opportunities in export markets; consider incremental selling on further price gains.
• 📢 Importers: Secure supplies while prices are relatively stable; monitor NCDEX futures and weather for early signs of volatility.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Product	Current Price	Projected Range (Next 3 Days)	Currency
Erode Spot	Turmeric	153.50	153.00 – 154.80	USD
NCDEX	Turmeric Futures	172.00	170.50 – 174.00	USD
Export FOB	Turmeric whole (organic)	2.55	2.50 – 2.58	EUR
Export FOB	Turmeric powder (organic)	3.38	3.32 – 3.42	EUR