The turmeric market finds itself in a cautious holding pattern, with prices having retreated sharply from last year’s highs and now stabilizing within a narrow range. The aftermath of the previous year’s rally—when turmeric topped USD 2.40 per kg—has left the market with significant carryover stocks and a subdued demand outlook, both domestically and in export channels. Recent price action reflects this new equilibrium: turmeric dropped to lows of USD 1.33 per kg before a modest rebound, largely attributed to delays in crop arrivals from Maharashtra. Yet, the overall mood remains bearish, with traders and analysts forecasting further downside risk as both supply and unsold inventory weigh on sentiment.
Across India’s main trading hubs—Nizamabad, Sangli, and Erode—demand is tepid. Most farmers have already liquidated their stocks, and the market is awash with supply, particularly as Maharashtra ramps up daily arrivals. Export orders remain lackluster, and with 2 to 2.5 million bags of carryover stock looming, any price uptick is likely to be met with aggressive selling. As a result, the market consensus is for prices to remain range-bound, or even drift lower into the second half of the year. Weather, harvest progress, and export trends will be key variables to watch as the season progresses.
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Turmeric dried
finger salem,double polished, grade A
FOB 1.75 €/kg
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📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Grade/Type | Price (USD/kg) | Prev. Price (USD/kg) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turmeric whole (Organic) | IN | New Delhi | – | 2.73 | 2.73 | 2025-05-24 |
| Turmeric powder (Organic) | IN | New Delhi | – | 3.54 | 3.54 | 2025-05-24 |
| Turmeric dried (Finger Salem, Double Polished, Grade A) | IN | Telangana | Non-Organic | 1.73 | 1.73 | 2025-05-24 |
| Turmeric dried (Finger Nizamabad, Double Polished, Grade A) | IN | Telangana | Non-Organic | 1.68 | 1.68 | 2025-05-24 |
| Exchange | Contract | Closing Price (USD/quintal) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCDEX | August Futures | 167.50 | -1.27 | Bearish |
| NCDEX | Spot (Nizamabad, Polished) | 171.53 | – | Weak |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- High carryover stocks of 2–2.5 million bags (50 kg each) are keeping prices under pressure.
- Demand remains weak across major trading centers (Nizamabad, Sangli, Erode).
- Farmers have largely sold their stocks; market arrivals are slowing in some regions but remain high in Maharashtra (30,000–40,000 bags/day).
- Export demand is muted, with over half of Andhra Pradesh’s new crop already traded.
- National weighted average price: USD 151.98/quintal, down from USD 196.26 a year ago.
📊 Fundamentals
- Significant inventory overhang from last season’s bumper crop.
- Domestic and export demand is subdued, with no signs of near-term revival.
- Speculative activity is low; traders are expected to sell into any rally.
- Price support could emerge if arrivals slow further or if weather disrupts the ongoing harvest.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Maharashtra & Telangana: Recent weather has been generally favorable for harvest, but any onset of heavy monsoon rains could temporarily disrupt arrivals and support prices.
- Andhra Pradesh: Harvesting continues under stable weather; no major concerns reported for crop quality or yield.
- Forecast: IMD projects normal to above-normal rainfall for the main turmeric-growing belts through June, supporting a steady pace of arrivals and keeping pressure on prices unless adverse weather emerges.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
- India remains the world’s largest producer and exporter of turmeric, with current stocks at multi-year highs.
- Export Markets: Key buyers (Middle East, US, EU) are showing slow offtake; global inventories are comfortable.
- Comparison: Last year’s higher prices triggered increased planting and output, resulting in the current oversupply scenario.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect prices to remain range-bound to slightly bearish in the short term (next 2–3 months).
- Any price rally is likely to be capped by aggressive selling from traders and stockists.
- Monitor weather developments; unexpected heavy rains could delay arrivals and offer short-term support.
- Export demand remains a key swing factor; watch for any uptick from major international buyers.
- Producers: Consider forward contracts or hedging strategies to manage downside risk.
- Buyers: Good opportunity to cover requirements at current levels, but avoid large speculative positions.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | 3-Day Price Forecast (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| NCDEX (Spot, Nizamabad) | 1.68 – 1.74 | Weak |
| APMC (Maharashtra) | 1.65 – 1.71 | Bearish |
| APMC (Andhra Pradesh) | 1.67 – 1.73 | Stable |
Note: Prices are indicative and subject to rapid change based on arrivals, weather, and export activity.
