🔵 Executive Summary
U.S. pecan shipments declined 13.3% year-on-year in December 2025, reflecting tightening supplies and weather-related production constraints, according to the American Pecan Council’s latest report.
Inventories remain significantly below historical averages, while forward commitments exceed available stock — highlighting a supply-sensitive market entering the peak receipt window.
Despite weaker shipment volumes, prices remain firm due to constrained availability and elevated contracted sales.
📊 Receipts: Recovery Month-on-Month, But Below Normal
December 2025 Receipts
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40.4 million pounds
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+21% vs November (33.4 million pounds)
However, compared with historical benchmarks:
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−19% vs December 2024 (48.2 million pounds)
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−25% vs five-year December average (54.2 million pounds)
Season-to-Date (Sept–Dec)
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106.2 million pounds
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Similar to last year (104.8 million pounds)
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−15% vs five-year average (124.7 million pounds)
Receipts remain structurally below trend despite monthly improvement.
🏷️ Quality Breakdown of December Receipts
| Category | Share |
|---|---|
| Improved Pecans | 90% |
| Native Pecans | 3% |
| Substandard Material | 7% |
The high share of improved pecans suggests stable grading quality, despite lower volumes.
📦 Inventory Position: Structurally Tight
End-December Inventory
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132.5 million pounds
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+7% vs November
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−18% vs December 2024
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−27% vs five-year average (181.5 million pounds)
Inventory composition:
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Shelled meats: 49%
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In-shell product: 51%
Stock levels remain well below historical norms, reinforcing tight supply dynamics.
🌪️ Production Constraints
Industry sources cite multiple weather disruptions:
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Hurricane damage in late 2024
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Widespread drought in 2025
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Impact across both U.S. and Mexican growing regions
These factors have constrained available supply entering the 2025/26 marketing year.
🚚 Shipments: Continued Weakness
December Shipments
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29.6 million pounds
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−13.3% year-on-year
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−31.5% vs five-year December average
Breakdown:
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Domestic: 25.0 million pounds
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Exports: 4.6 million pounds
Season-to-Date Shipments (Sept–Dec)
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147.3 million pounds
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−7.1% year-on-year
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−12.8% vs five-year average
Domestic shipments:
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125.5 million pounds
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−5.6%
Exports:
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21.7 million pounds
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−15.6%
Export demand has softened more sharply than domestic consumption.
📑 Commitments: Coverage Tightening
End-December Commitments
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140.6 million pounds
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+34% year-on-year
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−9% vs five-year average
Net Position (Inventory – Commitments)
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−8.1 million pounds
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Improved from −16.0 million pounds in November
A negative position indicates that contracted sales exceed available inventory — underscoring tight supply coverage.
📈 Price & Market Outlook
Market participants report:
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Firm pricing levels
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Limited spot availability
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Cautious forward coverage
The December–February period typically represents peak receipt inflows. Final crop realization and potential imports will determine supply coverage into early 2026.
If receipts remain below trend, upward price pressure could persist.
🧭 CMB Market Interpretation
The U.S. pecan market is currently characterized by:
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Structurally tight inventories
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Elevated forward commitments
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Below-average receipts
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Softer export momentum
Key Observations:
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Supply risk outweighs demand weakness.
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Export slowdown is likely price-driven.
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Domestic demand remains relatively resilient.
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Weather-driven crop variability continues to impact availability.
Short-Term Outlook:
Firm to steady pricing bias.
Medium-Term Risk:
If peak receipt inflows underperform, supply coverage could tighten further.
📊 Risk Assessment
| Factor | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Supply Tightness | High |
| Export Demand Weakness | Moderate |
| Weather-Related Risk | High |
| Price Volatility | Moderate |
| Inventory Coverage Risk | High |
📌 Why This Matters Now
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Inventories are 27% below historical norms.
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Commitments exceed current stock.
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Export performance is under pressure.
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Weather disruptions have affected both U.S. and Mexican production zones.
The coming two months will determine whether supply coverage stabilizes or tightens further.
🏁 Conclusion
U.S. pecan shipments slowed in December amid tightening inventories and weather-related supply constraints.
While shipment volumes are below historical averages, firm pricing reflects tight availability and elevated contracted sales.
The market remains highly sensitive to additional receipt inflows during the peak harvest window, with supply coverage into early 2026 still uncertain.