Harvest Hurdles: Ukraine Faces Grain and Oilseed Production Challenges
According to reports from the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), the forecast for grain and oilseed crops in Ukraine for 2024 points to a potential harvest of 76.1 million tonnes. This projection marks a decrease compared to the previous year’s estimate of 82.6 million tonnes, as reported by the UGA press service.
Factors Influencing the Forecast
The current forecast is based on the average weather conditions of the past five years. However, any improvements or deteriorations in weather conditions during the spring and summer could necessitate adjustments. The anticipated decline in the harvest for the new season is primarily attributed to reduced planting areas, particularly for grains, due to unfavorable price conditions in the global market and relatively costly export logistics.
Projections for Specific Crop
UGA forecasts the following for specific crops in 2024:
- Wheat harvest: 20 million tonnes (compared to 22 million tonnes in 2023)
- Barley harvest: 4.6 million tonnes (compared to 5.8 million tonnes in the previous year)
- Corn harvest: 26.3 million tonnes (down 3 million tonnes year-on-year)
Soybean Exception
Soybeans emerge as an exception, with farmers potentially increasing the area under cultivation due to its profitability. The forecast for soybean harvest in 2024 is 5.5 million tonnes, compared to 4.9 million tonnes in 2023.
Potential Export Estimates
Despite the projected decrease in harvest, the potential grain and oilseed export for the 2024/2025 marketing year remains significant. However, it may see a decline compared to the current season’s estimates, primarily due to market dynamics and crop yields.
Closing Thoughts
The UGA’s forecast sheds light on the challenges facing Ukraine’s agricultural sector and highlights the importance of adaptive strategies to mitigate risks and maximize opportunities amidst fluctuating market conditions. As the new season unfolds, stakeholders will closely monitor developments and make informed decisions to navigate the evolving landscape of grain and oilseed production in Ukraine.
Source:APKinform