Ukraine Among Hardest Hit by New US Tariff Adjustments, Says EBRD

🔵 Executive Summary

Ukraine has emerged as one of the countries most affected by the latest round of US import tariff adjustments, according to a February 26 report by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

While global tariff averages show a modest recalibration, several economies within the EBRD region — including Ukraine — face significant increases in US import duties.

The report indicates that under a scenario assuming a 15% baseline tariff, Ukraine is among five countries experiencing the largest tariff hikes.

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📜 Tariff Framework Overview

At the end of February 2026, a new package of US import tariffs came into effect.

Key points from the EBRD assessment:

• Exact tariff levels remain partially uncertain.

• Assuming a 15% new tariff structure, the trade-weighted average US import tariff has shifted relative to previous levels.

• Across the EBRD region, average US import tariffs increased from 14.6% to 15%.

• 29 countries in the EBRD region are now facing higher US tariff exposure.

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🌍 Regional Impact: EBRD Economies

Countries with the Largest Tariff Increases

(+3.7 to 4.8 percentage points)

• Armenia

• Egypt

• Kenya

• Kosovo

• Ukraine

These economies have experienced the sharpest upward adjustments in US import tariff exposure.

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Countries Benefiting from Relative Improvements

• Bosnia and Herzegovina

• Serbia

• Moldova

• Tunisia

Globally, Brazil, China, and India are cited as relative beneficiaries due to previously elevated tariff exposure before the recent adjustment.

Meanwhile, the UK, Italy, and Singapore now face comparatively higher US import tariff levels.

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🇺🇦 Implications for Ukraine

For Ukraine, higher US tariffs may affect:

• Agricultural exports

• Processed food products

• Industrial goods

• Metal and manufacturing segments

Given Ukraine’s export-driven economy and ongoing economic pressures, additional tariff exposure may:

• Weaken competitiveness in the US market

• Compress export margins

• Redirect trade flows toward alternative destinations

The full impact will depend on:

• Product-level tariff classification

• Volume sensitivity

• Exchange rate dynamics

• Diversification capacity

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🧭 CMB Market Interpretation

The tariff adjustments appear to reflect broader US trade recalibration rather than Ukraine-specific targeting. However, the scale of increase places Ukraine among the most exposed economies within the EBRD grouping.

Key Observations:

• Tariff volatility remains elevated in US trade policy.

• Emerging markets are experiencing uneven exposure shifts.

• Ukraine’s export resilience will depend on market diversification.

• Agricultural exporters may face incremental headwinds if duties persist.

Short-Term Outlook:
Increased cost pressure on select Ukrainian exports to the US.

Medium-Term Outlook:
Potential trade reorientation toward EU and alternative markets.

Strategic Risk:
High for sectors heavily reliant on US market access.

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📊 Risk Assessment

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📌 Why This Matters Now

• The EBRD region faces broad-based tariff increases.

• Ukraine ranks among the most impacted economies.

• US tariff recalibration continues to reshape global trade flows.

• Export-dependent sectors may need to adjust quickly.

With tariff levels still subject to clarification, ongoing monitoring remains essential.

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🏁 Conclusion

Ukraine stands among the countries most affected by the latest US tariff adjustments, according to the EBRD’s February assessment.

While average regional increases appear moderate, the country-specific rise for Ukraine is significant and may weigh on export competitiveness if sustained.

In an environment of continuing trade policy uncertainty, diversification and adaptive export strategies will be critical for mitigating tariff-related risks.