The Ukrainian Grain Association increased the estimate of the potential harvest in 2023 by 1 million tons compared to the June forecast — to 69 million tons.
In 2022 total crop was 73.8 million tons. In total, about 19.7 million hectares were sown in Ukraine compared to 25 million hectares on average in previous years.
Exports from Ukraine in 2023/24 may amount to 44.8 million tons. Last season, which ended on June 30, 2023, exports amounted to 58 million tons. But it should be noted that the indicated level of exports in 2023/2024 can be possible only with regular work of Ukrainian Black Sea ports.
The forecast for wheat harvest in 2023 is 17.9 million tons, barley – 4.4 million tons.
Such a harvest is more than enough to meet the country’s domestic demand and food security. But it will reduce the export potential for global food security. Export of wheat in 2023/2024 may amount to about 15 million tons, barley – up to 2 million tons.
The forecast for corn harvest has increased slightly — from 23.3 million tons to 24.2 million tons. In 2022 corn harvest was 27.3 million tons, in 2021 — 37.6 million tons. Corn export in 2023/2024 may amount to about 20 million tons, taking into account transitional stocks at the level of 1.3 million tons.
The oilseed crops forecast was increased
The sunflower harvest in 2023 is expected at the level of 12.7 million tons (in 2021 — 16.9 million tons, in 2022 — 11.1 million tons) Exports may amount to 1.1 million tons. Sunflower oil processing may reach 11, 5 million tons.
“Rapeseeds crop in 2023 may reach 3.8 million tons. Exports in 2023/2024 are estimated at level of 3.5 million tons. Ukraine also expects the soybean harvest at the level of almost 4.4 million tons, and exports up to 3 million tons.