Ukraine’s Dramatic Walnut Export Collapse Reshapes Global Market Leadership

The global walnut market is experiencing a dramatic transformation as Ukraine, long a leading player in international walnut exports, faces an unprecedented collapse. For over two decades, Ukraine was a mainstay among the world’s top exporters, trailing only the United States, China, and more recently, Chile. However, 2025 marked a turning point: Ukrainian walnut export revenues plunged an astonishing 90%, effectively ending its era of dominance and triggering shockwaves through global trade flows. The heart of this collapse lies in regulatory upheaval and martial law measures, including the imposition of minimum export prices and burdensome controls, which have sharply curtailed Ukraine’s competitiveness. With more than 90% of walnuts produced by households rather than large-scale farms, these shifts have crippled the country’s export machinery.

Meanwhile, global walnut production continues its steady ascent, with robust output growth in the US, Chile, and China filling the void left by Ukraine. The EU, the world’s largest import market, now looks increasingly to these suppliers to meet surging internal demand. For traders, processors, and industry observers, the Ukrainian collapse signals a new competitive landscape, where exporters from the Americas and Asia are consolidating market share even as consumer appetite for walnuts climbs. Restoring Ukraine’s presence will require not only regulatory clarity but also a rebuilding of the traditional supply channels that so recently underpinned its export prowess.

📈 Walnut Market Prices (Feb 2026)

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Walnut kernels, light quarter	CN	Dalian	FOB	3.30	-0.05	Bearish
Walnut kernels, light amber pieces (8-12 mm)	CN	Dalian	FOB	2.25	-0.05	Bearish
Walnut kernels, light pieces (8-12 mm)	CN	Dalian	FOB	2.80	-0.05	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine: Historic exporter, now with 90% drop in export revenues in 2025, shelled walnut exports plummeted 97% year-on-year.
• Global: Production up 35.8% over a decade, reaching 2.715 million tonnes (in-shell basis).
• EU: Production up 18.2% over last decade (now slightly declining), but consumption soared 75% to 235,691 tonnes. EU imported over EUR 1 billion worth of walnuts in 2025.
• Top suppliers to EU: US (48%), Chile (26%), China (11%). Ukraine’s market share dramatically reduced.

📊 Drivers & Fundamentals

• Regulatory Impact: Ukraine’s 2025 collapse driven by martial law export controls, minimum price policies, and regulatory hurdles for household producers.
• Shift in Competitive Dynamics: US, Chile, and China rapidly filling the supply gap in key markets, especially the EU.
• Production Structure: Ukraine’s heavy household-based production (90%) particularly vulnerable to regulatory and export policy changes.
• Global Demand Resilience: Despite Ukraine’s exit, rising demand—led by the EU—sustains elevated import volumes and underpins market stability.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Ukraine: Weather not the principal cause of 2025 export collapse; main impact stems from government policy and trade restrictions.
• EU: No major adverse weather events recently reported; production decline more linked to maturing orchards and structural limits.
• US/Chile/China: Ongoing crop expansion, supported by generally favorable growing conditions and investment in orchard renewal.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

• United States: Dominates global exports, top supplier to EU (48% share).
• Chile: Major gainer from Ukraine’s retreat, now third globally.
• China: Expanding both production and export footprint.
• EU: Largely reliant on imports despite production growth; market remains robust despite declining local output since 2022.
• Ukraine: Once third/fourth-largest exporter, now marginal following dramatic export collapse.

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Expect global trade flows to continue favoring US, Chilean, and Chinese origin as Ukraine faces ongoing regulatory challenges.
• Bearish undertone for prices—reflected in recent FOB declines from top Chinese exporters.
• EU importers should prioritize relationships with alternative origins, ensuring supply chain continuity amidst lost Ukrainian volumes.
• For Ukraine, immediate sector recovery unlikely without resolution of policy and regulatory disincentives. Monitor potential government reforms and stability of export mechanisms for signs of future opportunity.

📅 3-Day Price Forecast (China, FOB Dalian)

Product	Current (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
Walnut kernels, light quarter	3.30	3.28 – 3.32	Soft Bearish
Walnut kernels, light amber pieces	2.25	2.23 – 2.27	Soft Bearish
Walnut kernels, light pieces	2.80	2.78 – 2.82	Soft Bearish