The global flax market has entered a period of notable turbulence, driven primarily by a sharp contraction in Ukrainian export volumes and ongoing tightness in supply across major origins. In November, Ukraine’s flax exports plummeted by 2.6 times compared to October, totaling just 2.94 thousand tons. This steep drop—paired with continued robust demand from the European Union, particularly Italy, Poland, and Belgium—has kept prices elevated despite the overall sluggish trade flows. Meanwhile, competition from Kazakh and Canadian origins remains steady, but these suppliers are also facing limited inventories and cost pressure. Globally, price levels are holding firm, sustained by constrained production and slow replenishment of stocks. Market participants are navigating a climate marked by supply disruptions, speculator caution, and macro risks such as weather and logistics challenges. While downstream users may face higher procurement costs, producers and traders are benefiting from sustained price resilience. The coming weeks will be decisive as weather developments and trade flows clarify the scope for further market tightening—or the start of much-needed relief.
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Flax seeds brown
brown
97%
FOB 1.45 €/kg
(from CA)
Flax seeds brown
brown
97%
FOB 1.82 €/kg
(from KZ)
Flax seeds brown
brown
99,9%
FOB 0.90 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Origin | Country | Location | Purity | Organic | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flax seeds brown | Canada | Ottawa | 97% | Yes | FOB | 1.47 | 0.00 | Bullish |
| Flax seeds brown | Kazakhstan | Astana | 97% | Yes | FOB | 1.84 | 0.00 | Bullish |
| Flax seeds brown | India | New Delhi | 99.9% | No | FOB | 0.90 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Flax seeds brown | Ukraine | Poland (Kiełczygłów) | 99.95% | No | FCA | 0.65 | 0.00 | Bullish |
| Flax seeds brown | Ukraine | Germany (Berlin) | 99.95% | No | FCA | 0.72 | 0.00 | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Ukraine: Exports sharply declined in November as logistics disruptions and low stocks limited shipments. Exports stand at just 2.94 thousand tons for the month, focused heavily on EU markets.
- Kazakhstan: Supplies remain tight; prices elevated due to lower-than-expected harvest after dry weather in the spring and summer.
- Canada: Output constrained by summer drought, especially in prairies.
- European Union: Maintains strong demand, particularly from food and industrial processors in Italy, Poland, and Belgium.
- India: Still competitive at lower purity levels, but limited share in premium food-quality segment.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA and local ministry data point to declining stock-to-use ratios for flax globally, led by Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
- Speculative interest rising moderately, as traders bet on longer-lasting supply constraints.
- Inventory coverage in major EU import hubs below the 5-year average.
- Little evidence of demand destruction, but some end users are substituting with other oilseeds where feasible.
☀️ Weather Outlook
- Ukraine & Kazakhstan: Mild winter so far, though the risk of severe cold snaps remains; spring planting outlook will come into sharper focus by mid-February.
- Canada: Soil moisture recovery underway with winter precipitation, but subsoil deficits persist.
- India: Favorable dry harvest conditions; no major threats ahead.
Short-term: No immediate weather threats to standing crops or shipment flows, but extended dry periods could hinder next season’s plantings and output recovery.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Est. Production (kt) | 2024 Est. Stocks (kt) | Major Export Destinations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | ~55 (↓) | Low | EU (Italy, Poland, Belgium) |
| Kazakhstan | ~340 (↓) | Moderate | EU, China, Turkey |
| Canada | ~325 (↓) | Low | US, Europe, Asia |
| India | ~145 (↔) | Stable | Domestic, Iran, Bangladesh |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Producers should consider incremental sales as prices remain historically firm, but beware of overcommitting if stocks are tight.
- Traders: Market tightening supports a generally bullish stance, but volatility is likely—monitor EU tender demand and Kazakhstan export pace closely.
- End Users: Secure contracts for Q1 as supply disruptions may persist through winter; consider alternative origins for cost control.
- Speculators: Upside potential exists, but lack of fresh catalysts may limit gains near-term; key risks remain in weather and EU demand shifts.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Origin | Location | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range (Next 3 Days) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | Ottawa (FOB) | 1.47 | 1.47 – 1.50 | Bullish |
| Kazakhstan | Astana (FOB) | 1.84 | 1.83 – 1.87 | Firm |
| Ukraine | Odesa (FCA) | 0.63 | 0.62 – 0.65 | Bullish |