The global peas market is navigating a period of heightened volatility, as geopolitical barriers, export realignments, and surging output from key players reshape supply chains and price dynamics. Ukraine, once hopeful for a breakthrough into the lucrative Chinese market, is facing mounting challenges after signing a phytosanitary protocol in 2025—only to see actual trade halted due to delays in inspection. While Ukraine waits, Russia has rapidly grown its share of Chinese imports, capitalizing on both Canadian tariff setbacks and China’s shifting procurement.
The outcome? Ukrainian farmers are left grappling with record pea stocks and tumbling domestic prices, while Russian exporters tighten their grip on Asia’s largest growth market. Meanwhile, complicating matters further, decisions by importers such as India, Turkey, and the EU are all fueling global surplus, intensifying the need for Ukraine to innovate through value-added processing. Though glimmers of opportunity emerge through the nation’s strengthening pea processing sector, price upside appears capped—at least in the near term. The dynamics in the months ahead will be defined by China’s regulatory decisions, Russian volumes, and whether domestic processing can absorb swollen inventories.
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Peas dried
marrowfat
FOB 1.35 €/kg
(from GB)
Peas dried
green
FOB 1.04 €/kg
(from GB)
Peas dried
yellow
98%
FCA 0.27 €/kg
(from UA)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Exchange/Location Council | Currency | Latest Price | Previous Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peas dried (marrowfat) | GB | London (FOB) | EUR/kg/th> | 1.35 € | 1.35 € | 0% | Flat |
| Peas-dried (green) | GB | London (FOB) | EUR/kg | 1.04 € | 1.04 € | 0% | Stable |
| Peas dried (yellow, 98%) | UA | Odesa Nassel (FCA) | EUR/kg | 0.27 € | 0.29 € | -6.9% | Bearish |
| Peas dried Estimate (green, 98%) | UA | Odesa (FCA) | EUR/kg | 0.36 € | 0.38 € | -5.3% | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- China Market Entry Stalled for Ukraine: Despite finalizing phytosanitary protocols, China’s inability to conduct in-person site audits in Ukraine (due to martial law) means no shipments. Video inspections were offered, but no official clearance yet; Ukrainian exports remain on hold.
- Russia Fills the Gap: With Canada hit by Chinese tariffs in March 2025, Russia’s share of China’s yellow pea imports surged—from 37% (2023) to 66% (Jan–Nov 2025), rapidly shifting global trade flows and squeezing Ukraine’s potential market share.
- Record Ukrainian Crop, Oversupply: Ukrainian 2025 output set a record, but sluggish exports (200,000 tonnes only) led to carryover stocks of 250,000–300,000 tonnes. Farm-gate prices dropped from harvest levels of US$370–400/t to current US$290–315/t.
- Global Surplus & Pressure: India’s 30% duty refund, Turkey shifting to Russian origin, record EU output, and combined Canada/Russia pea exports of 3–4m tonnes each intensify supply-side pressure.
📊 Fundamentals
- Global Production & Stocks:
Country 2025/26 Est. Exports (mln tonnes) Notes Ukraine/th> 0.20 Record crop; export hopes pinned on China Russia/th> 3.5–4.0 Dominant in Chinese market post-Canada tariffs Canada 3.5–4.0 Global surplus; reduced access to China EU (Total) 0.8–1.0 Rising production across France/Eastern Europe - Inventories: Ukraine: 250,000–300,000 tonnes carryover; global stocks elevated.
- Processing Industry: Ukraine expanding into pea protein, bioglue, and other industrial segments. Long-term, this may help balance excess supply.
🌦️ Weather & Forecast
- Current weather conditions across Ukraine and western Russia are seasonally normal, though persistent wetness in some regions could affect early 2026 sowings, especially for peas-on-marginal soils.
- No major adverse events reported; however, close monitoring advised as spring sowings approach.
- Climate remains a secondary consideration versus structural oversupply and trade barriers.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term, pea prices in Ukraine and the Black Sea are likely to stay under pressure due to large carryover, lack of Chinese demand, and ongoing Russian dominance in the import market.
- Limited upside expected even if China opens to Ukrainian peas, given Russian supplies and current prices (~US$300/t FOB Russia).
- Farmers and exporters should consider value-added processing or delayed sales to manage risk amid soft prices.
- Watch for developments from Chinese authorities regarding phytosanitary clearance for Ukraine.
- Monitor Indian duty/tariff policy and Turkish/Russian trade flows for further shifts in market sentiment.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR/kg)
| Date | UA Yellow Peas (Odesa, FCA) | UA Zel Peas (Odesa, FCA) | GB Marrowfat (London, Earth) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 1.35 |
| Day 2 | 0.26–0.27 | 0.35–0.36 | 1.35 |
| Day 3 | 0.26 | 0.35 | 1.35 |
