Ukraine’s Pea Exporters Face Tightening Markets Amid Indian Tariffs & Russian Rivalry

Ukraine’s pea export sector is at a strategic crossroads. This season, geopolitical and trade policy changes have dramatically contracted key export markets, putting Ukrainian exporters under pronounced pressure. The reimposition of a 30% import tariff by India in November 2025 abruptly ended Ukraine’s access to one of its most important buyers, as India seeks to insulate its farmers and stabilise domestic pulse prices. With sizeable Indian carryover stocks and annual consumption around 4 million tonnes, the South Asian giant currently has little import appetite, effectively closing a major outlet for Ukrainian peas.

Simultaneously, Turkey—another mainstay market for Ukrainian pulses—has pivoted towards cheaper Russian supplies. Competitive pricing and redirected trade flows from Russia, which has been squeezed from European markets, are reshaping buying patterns across Turkey, China, and other Asian destinations. This increased rivalry, coupled with steady Canadian competition in the Middle East and Asia, has triggered an intensified battle for market share. With few new demand destinations emerging and pricing pressure mounting, Ukrainian exporters must now navigate a landscape marked by tougher competition, shrinking market access, and margin compression. The months ahead could see slower shipments and persistent headwinds—unless global demand or price dynamics shift to Ukraine’s advantage.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Purity	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Peas dried	GB	London	Marrowfat	–	FOB	1.35	0.00	Stable, high relative to UA
Peas dried	GB	London	Green	–	FOB	1.04	0.00	Stable, premium to UA
Peas dried	UA	Odesa	Yellow	98%	FCA	0.27	0.00	Depressed, pressured by RU competition
Peas dried	UA	Odesa	Green	98%	FCA	0.36	0.00	Low, little week-on-week change

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India’s Tariff Action: In November 2025, India reinstated a 30% import tariff on yellow peas (was zero-duty before), ending strong import flows and prioritising domestic food security.
• Indian Fundamentals: 2025 carryover stocks estimated at 1.4 million tonnes; annual consumption ~4 million tonnes; ample domestic supply with minimal import need.
• Turkish Market Shift: Turkey redirects procurement mainly to Russian origin due to more competitive prices, displacing Ukrainian peas.
• Russian & Canadian Competition: Russia aggressively undercuts in key export markets (Turkey, China, Asia) while Canada competes in Middle East/Asia, eroding Ukrainian share.
• Market Access: With limited routes to Europe and Asia, Ukrainian peas face both reduced demand and heightened price competition.

📊 Fundamentals

• Export Contraction: Ukrainian pea exports have contracted with the closure of Indian and Turkish demand.
• Pricing Dynamics: Russian peas offered at clearly lower prices than Ukrainian supply, forcing UA sellers to cut offers or risk losing further share.
• Stock Levels: No direct stock data for Ukraine, but the slow shipment pace suggests inventory build-up and storage pressure is possible.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Risks

• Weather impacts in Ukraine, Russia, and Canada currently have no acute influence on price, given the export channel issues are mostly trade policy- and competition-driven.
• Watch for upcoming weather reports in April-May for planting updates in the Black Sea and North America, which could affect 2026/27 supply.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Estimated 2025 Carryover (mn t)	Pea Production (mn t, 2024/25)	Major Export Markets
India	1.4	Est. 3.8	Domestic
Ukraine	–	Est. 0.6	Turkey, EU, China
Russia	–	Est. 2.5	Turkey, China, Asia
Canada	–	Est. 3.4	Asia, Middle East

• Ukraine is now outsupplied both in volume and price in its key markets by Russia and Canada.
• India’s market is presently self-sufficient for 2025, discouraging any significant imports.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Ukrainian exporters should expect ongoing margin pressure and subdued export demand, particularly while Indian and Turkish markets remain closed or redirected.
• Consider targeting emerging demand in China, South-East Asia, or position for any potential rebound in Indian purchases if stocks dwindle.
• Monitor Russian pricing and shipment volumes closely; further undercutting could force Ukrainian price concessions or storage strategies.
• Stay alert to policy signals from India and Turkey regarding trade regimes and tariffs that could reopen markets.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Ukraine (Odesa, FCA): Expected stable, but risk of downside as Russian supply continues to undercut. Forecast: EUR 0.27-0.26/kg (yellow), EUR 0.36-0.35/kg (green).
• UK (London, FOB): Expected unchanged. No significant nearby risks or drivers. Forecast: Marrowfat EUR 1.35/kg; Green EUR 1.04/kg.

Key Insight: Ukrainian peas are facing a contraction in accessible export channels due to Indian protectionism, Turkish pivot to Russia, and sustained competitive aggression from Russian and Canadian exporters. Unless new destinations open or price conditions shift, pressure on prices and margins is likely to persist.