Rapeseed prices in Paris MATIF
Under pressure from rising offers from European producers and falling soybean prices, February rapeseed contracts at the Paris MATIF fell 2.8% on the week to €414.25/t (-2.4% on a monthly basis), but due to a strengthening stock market. Euro-dollar prices decreased by 3.5% to $445.3/ton.
Rapeseed demand is decreasing
In Ukraine, rapeseed prices in Black Sea ports remain at a high level of $370-380/tonne or 16,300-16,600 UAH/tonne as traders are forced to purchase trial lots due to a shortage of offers from producers. The number of traders buying rapeseed is decreasing, so its prices will also decrease in the near future.
Harvest is falling in Europe
Asking prices for deliveries to Germany and the Czech Republic throughout the week remained at €400-410/t DAP, so deliveries to the western border are quite limited. According to Strategy Grains’ forecast, the EU will harvest 18.4 million tonnes of rapeseed in the 2024/25 season, which is 1.4 million tonnes less than in the previous season, while the rapeseed area will decrease by 0.36 million hectares to 5.6 million hectares.
Market reaction
Markets have not yet reacted to forecasts of cuts in EU rapeseed production in the new season; Therefore, advanced rapeseed prices in Ukraine remain at €385/ton DAP Germany, but August futures contracts are trading at €413.25/ton, the same as March.
USDA’s report is expected
Investors are awaiting a new report from the USDA that could adjust Brazil’s crop forecasts, stemming the decline in soybean and canola prices but not leading to strong growth.
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