Ukrainian rapeseed will be much more expensive in the new season. It will be facilitated by frosts in May and the growth of stock market quotations
On May 20, there was a sharp increase in rapeseed prices on the exchange – from 475 euros per ton to 485 euros. If the growth on the exchange continues, then in the next two weeks prices may reach 500 euros per ton. Experts predict such growth after analysing the problems with May frosts. At the moment, there is no official information yet. However, according to producers, damage to rapeseed crops in East regions is up to 30-40%.
In this regard, the predicted gross harvest of rapeseed at the level of 4-5 million tons in Ukraine will hardly happen. If last year harvest was 4.7 million tons, then this year the it will not exceed 4.1 million tons. This reduction in production will push prices up.
Competition between exporters and oil producers will intensify.
In Ukraine, it is planned to process about 500-550 thousand tons of rapeseed. Therefore, we can expect that there will be a “fight” for the oilseeds between exporters and processors. In the past Ukraine usually quickly exported rapeseed in 2-3 months. This year the season was long and lasted until February-March. Thus, one can not expect a large supply of rapeseeds from farmers in July-August. Only those farmers who need “quick money” will sell rapeseed during harvesting.
It is noted that currently purchasing prices for rapeseeds are 420-430 euros per ton on CPT basis. The demand for new rapeseed crop is really big these days. Both traders and processors are actively contracting oilseeds. But as it was already noted, the sales will be slow in expectation of higher prices.