Ukrainian Yellow Millet Market: Stable Prices Amid Strong Supply and Weather Watch
The global millet market is currently experiencing a period of relative stability, with Ukrainian yellow millet maintaining competitive pricing and prompt delivery options for European buyers. As of late May 2025, export offers for Ukrainian yellow millet are quoted at $350–$380 per metric ton CFR European ports, reflecting steady demand from the bird feed sector and resilient supply chains despite ongoing regional uncertainties.
Quality standards remain high, with moisture capped at 14%, purity above 98%, and hull content below 7%. The Ukrainian crop is well-positioned to meet bulk and bagged shipment requirements, and market sentiment is cautiously optimistic as the 2025 harvest approaches.
In the broader context, product prices for millet seeds and kernels from Ukraine, China, and Poland show only minor weekly fluctuations, suggesting a balanced market. However, all eyes are on weather developments across the Black Sea region and North China Plain, as these will be the key determinants for yield outcomes and exportable surpluses.
With global stocks relatively tight and speculative interest subdued, the market is particularly sensitive to any adverse weather news or logistical disruptions. For buyers and traders, this is a time to monitor shipping rates and crop progress closely, as the window for securing favourable contracts may narrow quickly if conditions change.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Millet seeds
hulled, yellow
FOB 0.19 €/kg
(from UA)
Millet kernels
hulled, yellow
99.90%
FOB 0.82 €/kg
(from CN)
Millet kernels
hulled, yellow
99.95%
FOB 0.74 €/kg
(from CN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Type | Purity | Organic | Delivery Terms | Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millet seeds | UA (Odesa) | hulled, yellow | – | No | FOB | 0.19 | 0.00 | 2025-05-22 | Stable |
| Millet kernels | CN (Beijing) | hulled, yellow | 99.90% | Yes | FOB | 0.82 | -0.02 | 2025-05-21 | Softening |
| Millet kernels | CN (Beijing) | hulled, yellow | 99.95% | No | FOB | 0.74 | -0.02 | 2025-05-21 | Softening |
| Millet seeds | UA (Odesa) | inshell, yellow | 98% | No | FCA | 0.21 | +0.01 | 2025-05-16 | Firm |
| Millet kernels | UA (Odesa) | hulled, yellow | 98% | No | FCA | 0.40 | -0.01 | 2025-05-16 | Stable |
| Millet kernels | UA (Odesa) | hulled, yellow | 99% | Yes | FCA | 1.20 | 0.00 | 2025-05-16 | Firm |
| Millet seeds | PL (Kiełczygłow) | raw, yellow | 98% | No | FCA | 0.32 | +0.01 | 2025-05-12 | Firm |
| Millet seeds | PL (Kiełczygłow) | hulled, yellow | 99.95% | No | FCA | 0.48 | +0.02 | 2025-05-12 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Ukraine: Remains a key supplier to European markets, with prompt delivery and high-quality product.
- China: Continues to export premium, organic millet at higher price points, but with some softening in prices due to increased availability.
- Europe: Demand is steady, driven by the bird feed and health food sectors. Inventories are sufficient, but buyers are watchful of freight and logistics costs.
- Global: Stock-to-use ratios remain tight, particularly in the wake of smaller Indian and African crops in 2024. Any weather-related supply shocks could quickly tighten the market.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA Reports: Indicate stable global production with minor year-on-year declines in India and Africa offset by gains in Ukraine and China.
- Crop Acreage: Ukrainian millet acreage for 2025 is estimated slightly higher than 2024, supporting exportable surpluses.
- Speculative Positioning: Limited speculative activity in millet, with most trade driven by physical demand.
- Freight Rates: Freight remains a key variable for CFR prices, with Black Sea shipping lanes functioning but subject to periodic disruptions.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Ukraine: Current forecasts call for mostly favourable weather in key millet regions, with adequate soil moisture and moderate temperatures. However, scattered showers are needed in June to avoid yield stress.
- China (North): Weather is stable, but early heat waves have been reported. Continued monitoring is recommended as the crop enters the critical heading phase.
- India/Africa: Monsoon onset is timely, but rainfall distribution will be crucial for late-season crop development and global balance.
🌐 Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (est. million t) | 2024/25 Stocks (est. million t) | Export Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 10.5 | 1.2 | 10 |
| China | 2.7 | 0.5 | 25 |
| Ukraine | 0.45 | 0.06 | 85 |
| Africa (aggregate) | 8.2 | 0.8 | 5 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📌 Buyers: Consider securing forward contracts for Q3/Q4 2025 delivery, especially if weather risks intensify in the Black Sea or Asia.
- 📌 Sellers: Monitor freight rate developments and crop progress for optimal timing of export offers.
- 📌 Traders: Watch for short-term volatility linked to weather headlines and logistical updates.
- 📌 End-users: Maintain moderate inventories as a buffer against potential supply disruptions.
🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (USD/t) | Forecast Range (USD/t) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine FOB Odesa | 190 | 188–192 | Stable |
| Ukraine CFR Europe | 350–380 | 348–382 | Stable |
| China FOB Beijing | 740–820 | 735–825 | Slightly Softer |
| Poland FCA Kiełczygłow | 320–480 | 318–485 | Stable/Firm |
