Analysts explained that in the next 7-10 days, no significant precipitation is expected in Europe, so the condition of spring crops, especially corn, will continue to deteriorate, so the upward trend in grain prices is likely to continue.
Amid the hot weather, Strategy Grains experts have lowered their forecast for the European wheat crop. In the report for June, the forecast of soft wheat production in the EU in 2023/24 MY was reduced by 1.3 mln tonnes to 128.7 mln tonnes, which is 3.6 mln tonnes higher than in 2022/23 season.
This adjustment is due to the expected decline in spring grain production due to dry and hot weather in the northern regions of Europe, particularly in the Baltic States and northern Poland.
Due to the delayed sowing of corn in Spain, Poland and northern France, the forecast of its production has been reduced by 0.9 million tons to 61.2 million tons, which is 9 million tons more than in the previous season, experts say.
The forecast of barley harvest was reduced by 2 million tons to 47.9 million tons (3.3 million tons less than in the previous season), in particular, the estimate of spring barley production was reduced to 19.2 million tons (4.3 million tons less than last year).
On Euronext on Friday, futures for major crops rose sharply:
- September wheat futures – by 1.6% to 238.75 €/t (+9.4% since the beginning of June);
- November corn futures – by 1.4% to 236 €/t (+10%);
- September futures for rapeseed – by 6.4% to 473.5 €/t (+19.8%).
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