Global Wheat Market Overview
Global wheat prices have been depressed for a long time, under pressure from weak demand and favourable weather for winter wheat crops in the northern hemisphere, as well as rainfall in India and Australia. However, there was a speculative rally in the market yesterday as traders did not expect prices to fall much further, especially given the heat in Argentina.
US Wheat Exports
According to the USDA, US wheat exports for the 19-25 January period fell 19% week-on-week to 264.7 thousand tonnes, bringing the season total to 10.99 million tonnes, 20% lower than the 13.2 million tonnes exported during the same period last year.
European Wheat Prices and Exports
European wheat prices continue to fall, having already lost 12% since the start of the season.Wheat exports from the EU rose to 453,000 tonnes during the week and total exports for the season to 28 January were 18.24 million tonnes, 5% lower than last year. Against the backdrop of falling prices, European traders are increasing export volumes, successfully competing with Russian wheat.
EU Wheat Production Forecast
The European Commission raised its forecast for EU common wheat production in 2023/24 by 0.2 to 125.9 million tonnes (125.8 million tonnes in 2022/23), for imports by 0.5 to 7 (9.6) million tonnes and for ending stocks by 0.7 to 19.1 (19.4) million tonnes, but left the export forecast unchanged at 31 (32.7) million tonnes.
Market Impact of Philippines’ Tender
The Philippines’ tender for 96,000 tonnes of Australian feed wheat for delivery in April-May at $280/t or €258/t C&F will also support the market.
Ukrainian Wheat Prices
In Ukraine, purchase prices for feed wheat for delivery to Black Sea ports remained at $150-157/t or €138-144/t this week due to a reduction in offers from producers. At the same time, processors increased demand for high quality food wheat with 12.5% protein and its prices to €170-182/t for delivery to the factory, which is significantly higher than the €180-187 /t for delivery to ports offered by exporters.
Impact of Lower Maize Export Prices
Lower maize export prices will increase pressure on feed wheat prices, but they will be supported by a shortage of wheat supplies, especially food grade wheat.
Import/Export Statistics
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