Analysts of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its December report reduced the estimate of world oilseed production in the season-2023/24 from November 661.46 million tons to 660.99 million tons (633.52 million tons in 2022/23 agricultural year). According to experts, the adjustments occurred against the background of reduced forecasts of oilseed harvest in Brazil and the United States.
Thus, the harvest of major oilseeds in 2023/24 MY, according to updated data, will be 542.66 million tons (542.98 million tons in November monitoring; 511.42 million tons in 2022/23 MY), including soybean production is now expected at 398.88 million tons (400.42 million tons a month earlier), rapeseed – 86.98 million tons (85.58 million tons), sunflower – 56.8 million tons (56.98 million tons).
In contrast, the estimate for world oilseed exports was raised, from 194.57 million tons to 196.8 million tons (201.84 million tons in MY 2022/23). In particular, USDA adjusted sales forecasts for two major crops: soybeans – from 168.29 million tons to 170.29 million tons (171.12 million tons), for rapeseed – from 16.89 million tons to 17.09 million tons (20.21 million tons). For sunflowers, the figure is the same – 3.09 million tons (4.23 million tons).
As for processing volumes, the updated estimate for all oilseeds now stands at 542.48 million tons versus 542.18 million tons for the November report and 523.42 million tons for the 2022/23 season. Forecasts for soybeans and rapeseed were raised to 329.5 million tons (329.47 million tons in November) and 81.98 million tons (81.58 million tons), respectively. In contrast, sunflower saw a decline, from 52.38 million tons to 52.37 million tons.