Vietnam Rice Exports: Slowing Prices Amid Export Growth and Shifting Trade Patterns

Vietnam’s rice market is in a state of transition as recent export data and price movements signal shifting fundamentals across Asia and beyond. In the first two months of 2026, Vietnam boosted its rice export volume by 5% year-on-year, reaching 1.3 million tonnes, but this growth came with a catch: total export value declined by over 11%. The underlying cause is clear—a steep 15.4% drop in the average export price. While the Philippines continues to anchor Vietnamese rice demand, accounting for nearly half of the country’s shipments, dramatic changes are visible elsewhere: exports to China soared, but traditional West African buyers such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire scaled back purchases sharply.

On the ground, the peak harvest in Vietnam is swelling domestic supplies, keeping prices subdued and buyers sidelined as they await further declines. Add logistics headwinds—including increased freight and insurance costs—and market sentiment becomes cautious. For traders, the next moves hinge on the coming weeks’ harvest pace, regional competition, and buyer behavior. This is a market where opportunity and risk walk hand-in-hand.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
5% Broken Long White	VN (Hanoi)	FOB	0.48	-0.01	Bearish/Stagnant
Golden Sella	IN (New Delhi)	FOB	0.97	0.00	Stable
Steam PR11	IN (New Delhi)	FOB	0.47	0.00	Stable
Jasmine	VN (Hanoi)	FOB	0.50	-0.01	Slightly Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Exports from Vietnam reached 640,000 tonnes in February 2026, with cumulative two-month exports at 1.3 million tonnes (+5% yoy).
• Total export value is down 11.2%; average export price at USD 464.1/tonne (-15.4% yoy).
• Philippines remains the top buyer (47.6%), with export value to the country rising 17.6%.
• Exports to China rose sharply (5.8 times higher yoy); Ghana -31%, Côte d’Ivoire -90.9% yoy.
• Peak winter–spring harvest is boosting Vietnamese domestic supply, lowering prices and slowing trade as buyers anticipate further declines.

📊 Fundamentals

• Vietnamese 5% broken rice steady at ~USD 365/tonne for the week.
• Freight and insurance costs elevated due to Middle East tensions, but no direct shipment disruptions reported for Vietnam.
• 382,000 tonnes handled by southern Vietnamese ports in February, majority to the Philippines and Africa.
• Market sentiment is cautious and price action subdued as peak harvest nears completion.

⛅ Weather & Yield Outlook

• Early indications for Vietnam’s winter–spring crop remain generally favorable, with harvest nearly at its seasonal peak.
• No reports of severe adverse weather threatening immediate yield, though freight and logistics remain under watch due to global fuel and insurance trends.
• Stable weather supports large harvest, applying further pressure to market prices.

🌐 Global Market Comparison

• Vietnam: Export value decline despite larger volume, reflecting global price pressures.
• India (reference prices from New Delhi, March 2026): Diverse rice varieties stable in EUR pricing: Golden Sella (0.97 EUR/kg), Steam PR11 (0.47 EUR/kg), Non-Basmati Organic (1.5 EUR/kg).
• Other exporters: No major disruptions seen, but softer global prices exert general pressure on Asian exporters.

💡 Trading Outlook

• Bearish outlook continues near term due to peak harvest-induced surplus and buyer hesitancy.
• Exporters may see further downward price pressure until Q2 when post-harvest inventory stabilizes and demand clarity improves.
• Monitor freight rates and insurance premiums, especially for African and Middle Eastern destinations—cost surges could reduce competitiveness.
• Watch for potential upside if Southeast Asian weather turns unfavorable or if geopolitical risks escalate in other supply origins.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Vietnamese Types, FOB Hanoi)

Variety	Today (EUR/kg)	+1 Day	+2 Days	+3 Days
5% Broken Long White	0.48	0.47–0.48	0.47	0.47
Jasmine	0.50	0.49–0.50	0.49	0.49
Red	0.77	0.76–0.77	0.76	0.76