The global walnut market is entering a pivotal year, shaped by a dramatic rebound in California’s crop and notably tight carry-in inventories. The USDA’s Objective Measurement projects California’s walnut production at 710,000 tons (644,101 MT) for 2025—an impressive 18% increase over last year. While bearing acreage has decreased marginally by 1%, crop assessments reveal consistent nut set and robust quality signals for the fall harvest. Notably, the 2024 crop year is set to close with unsold inventory at its lowest in recent memory, intensifying pre-harvest buying interest as the trade prepares for the first shipments of the new crop.
Weather across key U.S. and Chinese walnut-growing regions remains favorable, supporting yield prospects and reinforcing the supply-side recovery narrative. Market participants are now focused on the interplay between larger supply and strong global consumption trends. Meanwhile, FOB prices for Chinese walnut kernels in Dalian have stabilized at recent lows, with no significant week-on-week changes. As buyers weigh the prospect of ample new season supply against rapidly clearing old-crop stocks, market sentiment has turned cautiously optimistic.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Walnut kernels
light quarter
FOB 3.40 €/kg
(from CN)
Walnut kernels
light amber pieces, 8-12 mm
FOB 2.35 €/kg
(from CN)
Walnut kernels
light pieces, 8-12 mm
FOB 2.90 €/kg
(from CN)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Origin | Location | Type | Organic | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walnut kernels | China | Dalian | Light quarter | No | 3.40 | 0.00 | 2025-09-06 | Stable |
| Walnut kernels | China | Dalian | Light amber pieces, 8-12 mm | No | 2.35 | 0.00 | 2025-09-06 | Stable |
| Walnut kernels | China | Dalian | Light pieces, 8-12 mm | No | 2.90 | 0.00 | 2025-09-06 | Stable |
| Walnut kernels | China | Dalian | Light broken, 4-8 mm | No | 3.00 | 0.00 | 2025-09-06 | Stable |
| Walnut kernels | USA | London | Light halves, 80% | Yes | 4.65 | 0.00 | 2025-09-06 | Stable |
| Walnut kernels | India | New Delhi | Light halves | Yes | 5.50 | 0.00 | 2025-09-06 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Production Surge: California’s projected 18% increase to 710,000 tons for 2025 reverses last year’s drought-impacted output, despite a slight dip in bearing acres.
- Carry-in Tightness: Lowest unsold inventory in several years; most old-crop stocks expected to clear by early autumn, supporting spot prices.
- Consumption Trends: Strong global demand from snack, confectionery, and health food sectors, especially in Europe and Asia.
- Global Trade Flows: Export competition from U.S., China, and India remains robust, with currency and logistics continuing as risk factors.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Data
- Acreage: 365,000 bearing acres in California (-1% YoY); U.S. remains global production leader.
- Inventories: Importers in Middle East, India, and Europe expected to enter the new crop year with low stocks, boosting early 2025 shipment inquiries.
- Cultural Practices: USDA emphasizes improved orchard management and resilience to weather variability.
☁️ Weather Outlook & Crop Quality
- California: Recent weather has been favorable—moderate late-summer temperatures and well-timed irrigation. Harvest to begin in September with high-quality kernel reports (well-filled, light color).
- China: Key regions (Xinjiang, Yunnan) report normal monsoon rainfall; no major concerns for harvest due in October–November.
- India: Production steady, quality high in major Himalayan regions amid good monsoon coverage.
🌐 Global Stocks & Production (Comparison Table)
| Country | 2024/25 Production (MT) | Change (%) | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA (California) | 644,101 | +18% | Crop recovery, reduced stocks |
| China | 1,100,000 | +2% | Stable; supports global supply |
| India | 35,000 | 0% | Consistent, mostly for domestic use |
| EU | 150,000 | +3% | Primarily France, Romania, Spain |
🛠️ Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- ✔️ Buyers: Secure contracts ahead of new crop shipping (from September); monitor quality and kernel yield data.
- ✔️ Sellers: Take advantage of strong early demand as inventories clear; review contract terms for currency and logistics volatility.
- ⚠️ Speculators: Upside potential limited by large new U.S. crop; watch early harvest real-time reports for possible quality downgrades.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location & Product | Price Trend (EUR/kg) | Range | Market Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dalian (CN) Light kernels | Stable | 2.35 – 3.40 | No change, major harvest yet to impact spot offers |
| London (US organic halves) | Stable | 4.65 | Premiums persist for certified lots |
| New Delhi (IN organic halves) | Stable | 5.50 | Slow trade; steady local demand |
