The effect of a 5% increase in oil prices on oil prices
Accelerating soybean harvests in Brazil and increased soybean production forecasts in Argentina are putting pressure on soybean and oil prices.The 5% rise in oil prices during the week did not support vegetable oil prices as demand remains very weak against a backdrop of increased supply.
Soybean oil prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange
March soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 3% yesterday to $1,003/t (-6% for the month, -32% for the year). March palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia fell 1.7% to RM3,948/t or $833/t yesterday (+1.2% for the week, +5.7% for the two weeks) on the back of fixed profits and falling soybean oil prices.
Seasonal effects
A seasonal drop in palm oil production in January led to a reduction in supply, although Malaysia plans to increase oil production by 1% to 18.75 million tonnes in 2024. However, oil stocks will not rise at the end of January as the pace of exports has also slowed.In the spring, production volumes will increase, but exports may remain low given the sharp drop in soybean oil prices.
Latest situation in the Dalian Stock market
On Monday the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian exchange fell 1.8% and palm oil fell 0.8%.
Sunflower oil prices
Sunflower oil demand prices for delivery to buyers remain at $845/t. In Ukraine, prices for sunflower oil with delivery to Black Sea ports are $750-770/t, with delivery to Bulgaria they have fallen to $820-830/t and to Italy – to $850-860/t.
There may be disruptions in the world market
Oil prices rose yesterday amid an attack on a US base in Jordan in which three soldiers were killed. This could increase the escalation in the Middle East and lead to disruptions in the supply of oil to the world market.
Import/Export Statistics
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