Wheat Market Analysis: Stability Reigns amid Domestic Demand and Global Weakness

The wheat market has entered a phase marked by unusual steadiness, seeing a notable decline in selling pressure across major trading hubs. Analysts highlight that the roots of this stability lie in a healthy equilibrium between consistent arrivals and firm demand from millers, minimizing the scope for significant price volatility. Domestically, traders and processors are working through regular daily arrivals, easily meeting current milling demands. This, coupled with ample supply, has effectively prevented upward price momentum even as international wheat prices show continued weakness.

Export competitiveness is under strain, with weak global prices and favorable import conditions discouraging new outbound sales. The Indian subcontinent’s main markets—Indore, Delhi, and Rajkot—are all displaying similar patterns, with wheat trading firmly within a predictable range. The forward outlook emphasizes caution, with prices expected to remain range-bound unless sparked by a surge in external demand or sudden adverse weather events. For industry participants, this environment calls for close monitoring of export policies and key climate developments.

📈 Wheat Price Overview

Location / Exchange	Type / Grade	Price per Tonne (EUR)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Kyiv, UA (FCA)	Protein min. 11.50%	€240	0%	Neutral
Kyiv, UA (FCA)	Protein min. 9.50%	€220	0%	Neutral
Odesa, UA (FCA)	Protein min. 11.50%	€250	0%	Neutral
Odesa, UA (FCA)	Protein min. 9.50%	€240	0%	Neutral
Paris, FR (FOB Euronext)	Protein min. 11.00%	€290	0%	Stable
Washington D.C., US (FOB CBOT)	Protein min. 11.50%	€230	0%	Stable
Odesa, UA (FOB)	Protein min. 11.00%	€200	0%	Neutral
Odesa, UA (FOB)	Protein min. 10.50%	€200	-4.8%	Softening
Odesa, UA (FOB)	Protein min. 12.50%	€210	0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Steady Arrivals: Consistent daily arrivals in key Indian markets (3,000–4,000 bags) are aligning supply with miller demand, preventing oversupply and holding prices steady.
• Export Headwinds: Weak international prices and stable domestic pipelines have capped export activity, keeping more product within the country.
• Domestic Demand: Ongoing consumption from flour millers, supported by stable food processing industry demand, is acting as a floor for prices.
• USDA Data: Global stocks are adequate, with no major supply shocks this season; speculative positions remain neutral.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Stock & Production: Major exporters (Russia, EU, US, Canada, Australia) report normal to above-average production, contributing to ample available stocks globally.
• Import/Export Trends: Import demand from North Africa and Asia is muted, as buyers wait for further declines or for policy signals on international trade.
• Regional Quality Spread: Slight premium persists for higher-protein wheat, especially out of Paris and Odesa, reflecting quality-focused mill demand.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Black Sea Region: Mild temperatures with isolated rainfall are providing good late-season development, supporting yield prospects in Ukraine and Russia.
• US Midwest: Predicted warm and dry pattern may accelerate harvest but is not causing major stress, supporting favorable yields overall.
• Europe: Mixed but manageable showers are ensuring crops enter harvest in good shape. No major weather threats are currently reported.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country/Region	2023/24 Production (Mln Tonnes)	Ending Stocks (Mln Tonnes)
Russia	91.5	17.6
EU	134.6	10.2
US	49.3	15.0
Australia	32.0	5.3
Canada	34.3	4.7
India	107.7	8.8
China	138.7	133.0

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ✅ Buyers: Use current price stability to build or replenish inventory as downside risk is currently limited.
• ⚠️ Sellers: Hold off on large sales unless there is a material uptick in export demand or weather-driven deterioration in crop outlook.
• 🔍 Watch: Policy shifts, especially in export restrictions or tariffs, as well as critical weather updates in July–August, which could shift the balance.
• 💹 Speculators: Consider range-trading strategies as volatility remains subdued and no pronounced trend has emerged.

⏭ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange / Market	Current Price (EUR/Tonne)	3-Day Forecast
CBOT (US, 11.5% Prot)	€230	€228 – €232 (Stable)
Euronext (Paris, 11.0% Prot)	€290	€288 – €292 (Stable)
UA FCA (Kyiv/Odesa, 11.5% Prot)	€240-€250	€240 – €255 (Potential softening if export demand delays)