Wheat Market Holds Steady Amid Supply Security & Investor Positioning in 2026

Wheat traders face a market in search of direction after last week’s notable rally. Trading this week in both Chicago and Paris has shown limited momentum, with Euronext (MATIF) contracts for May 2026 once again testing the key €200/t threshold yet ultimately closing a little softer for old crop positions. The rally seen the prior week was rooted largely in renewed speculative buying from financial investors, not in any drastic shift in global wheat fundamentals. Inventories remain abundant by historical standards, with major exporting nations entering the 2026/27 season poised for higher ending stocks, which could partially offset production shortfalls expected after this year’s record harvest. With ample wheat coverage until new crop, and only tentative evidence of crop damage in the northern hemisphere, traders are watching closely for signs of a market inflection point. The forward curve confirms this uncertainty: far-dated contracts are commanding a meaningful premium—May 2028 Euronext wheat finished at €222/t this week, nearly €25 above May 2026. The next few weeks, particularly through weather developments and global tender activity, will be decisive in confirming the possibility of a sustained uptrend.

📈 Prices: Key Futures Exchanges

Euronext (MATIF) Wheat	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Mar 2026	193.00	0.00%	Steady
May 2026	196.50	0.00%	Cautious
Sep 2026	200.75	0.00%	Neutral/Firm
Dec 2026	207.25	0.00%	Constructive
May 2028	223.00	0.00%	Uptrend Pricing

 

CBOT Wheat	Closing Price (US¢/bu)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Mar 2026	567.00	+0.22%	Flat
May 2026	571.25	+0.26%	Stable
Jul 2026	579.00	+0.22%	Range-bound
Sep 2026	590.50	+0.21%	Steady
Dec 2026	607.75	+0.21%	Firm/Neutral

 

ICE Feed Wheat	Closing Price (GBP/t)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Mar 2026	164.70	-0.18%	Slightly Weaker
May 2026	168.25	-0.24%	Neutral/Soft
Jul 2026	171.80	-0.29%	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Speculative Activity: The previous week’s price rise stemmed chiefly from renewed investor demand, not a major change in supply outlook.
• Global Stocks: Exporting nations entering 2026/27 with elevated ending stocks after a bumper crop help buffer possible production decline ahead.
• EU Exports: 2025/26 EU soft wheat exports reached 15.4 million tonnes so far—up 10% y/y—despite incomplete French data. Strong competitive shipments from Black Sea origins (e.g. Russia, Ukraine) are also evident.
• Global Tenders: Algeria’s recent wheat tender activity points to ongoing heavy buying interest, with market signals suggesting competitively priced Black Sea supplies are winning business over Western Europe.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Context

• End-of-Season Supply: Wheat supplies remain comfortable until new-crop harvest; only moving lower in the event of major weather-induced damage in the coming months.
• Weather Risk: The northern hemisphere crop came through winter largely unscathed with some spot issues, but the market remains watchful for evolving risks through spring and summer.
• Forward Curve: The significant premium on 2028 contracts (May: €222/t) signals that investors are beginning to price in the risk of tighter markets ahead, ending the multi-year price downtrend.
• Speculative Positioning: Non-commercials are playing a powerful role as directional drivers at present, amplifying short-term volatility.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• US Southern Plains: Rain is forecast next week, set to relieve drought stress in key Hard Red Winter wheat regions, exerting gentle pressure on US prices.
• Europe & Black Sea: Winter wheat stands are generally in good-to-excellent condition following a mild winter, but select spots have seen stress (details and yield impact still developing).

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison

• Major Exporters (2026/27 Outlook): Russia and Ukraine continue to offer aggressive Black Sea wheat, strengthening their hand in global tenders. Western Europe, particularly France, faces logistical bottlenecks but shows robust output.
• Importers: North Africa (esp. Algeria, Egypt) continues to underpin global demand with large recurring purchases. Asian demand remains stable but lacks major growth drivers currently.

🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect directionless trading in near-term contracts until clearer weather- or policy-driven signals emerge.
• Monitor speculative positioning; current robust investor interest could amplify both declines and recoveries.
• Watch for updates on North African tenders (Algeria, Egypt) which could shift export flows and basis levels.
• New-crop contracts may offer risk management opportunities for hedgers given the widening forward premium.
• Feed wheat and lower-protein origins trading at marginal discounts (see offer shortcut below) reflect ample supply amid limited end-user urgency.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Near-Term Direction	Range Expectation
Euronext (MATIF)	Sideways/Soft	€193–€200/t
CBOT (Chicago)	Sideways	560–580 US¢/bu
Black Sea FOB	Soft/Firm	EUR 180–190/t equiv.