Wheat Market: Short-Term Rally Fizzles Amid Export Moves & Global Price Limits

Domestic wheat prices experienced a brief rally after the government opened exports for processed wheat products like flour and semolina, fueling optimism among millers and traders. This decisive policy move initially boosted market sentiment, triggering a modest uptick in cash prices as industry participants anticipated expanded demand. However, the market quickly faced headwinds from global cues—especially Turkey, where wheat remains attractively priced, dampening India’s competitive edge in exports.

As a result, while prices firmed to around $39.40–$39.55 per quintal, most analysts view this uptick as fleeting. With the government recommencing its Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) tenders, an uptick in available supply is likely, further restricting upward momentum. Cautious voices in the market warn that unless there is a significant shift in global demand, these short-term gains are best seen as profit-taking opportunities rather than signs of a sustainable bull market.

📈 Price Overview

Exchange/Location	Product Spec.	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT (US-Washington D.C.)	Protein min. 11.50%, 98%	0.20	0.22	-0.02	Neutral/Soft
Euronext (FR-Paris)	Protein min. 11.00%, 98%	0.28	0.29	-0.01	Stable/Soft
Odesa (UA)	Protein min. 11.00%, 98%	0.18	0.18	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Export Policy Shift: Government reopening of processed wheat product exports briefly lifted domestic sentiment and prices.
• Global Competitiveness: Wheat from Turkey remains cheaper and more attractive to global buyers than Indian wheat at elevated levels, restricting additional export gains for India.
• OMSS Tenders: The recommencement of government OMSS tenders is set to release additional stocks into the market, increasing domestic supply and capping further price appreciation.
• Sentiment: Market optimism is tempered by the expectation that these gains are temporary and not underpinned by fundamental demand growth.

📊 Fundamentals & Stock Outlook

• Firm cash wheat prices: Whole wheat trades at $39.40–$39.55 per quintal domestically (approx. 0.18–0.19 EUR/kg), tracking global price bands.
• Analyst view: Further upside is seen as limited unless there is a radical change in international demand patterns (e.g., crop failure in a major exporter).
• Inventory Outlook: OMSS sales likely to maintain ample domestic supply, suggesting stock-to-use ratios will remain comfortable and may rise if demand disappoints.

☀️ Weather & Production Outlook

• Regional Weather Trends: As of latest observations, weather in the Indian wheat belt remains generally favorable, supporting healthy yields for the next harvest.
• Global Weather: Weather forecasts in Ukraine and the EU are stable, with minor stress; no severe events are expected to threaten global wheat supplies in the next month.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024 Prod. (est., mn t)	2024 Stocks (est., mn t)	Key Trends
India	~108	High	Stock drawdown slowing; inventory to climb as OMSS resumes
EU	~130	Stable	Production steady; stocks unchanged
Russia	~90	Moderate	Solid export campaign; stocks drawing down
Turkey	~19	Improved	Cheap offers boost exports, pressure others
Ukraine	~20	Declining	Supplies moving briskly

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Profit-taking recommended at current high domestic price levels due to likely short-lived rally.
• Monitor OMSS tender releases—these will set the tone for domestic pricing over the next few weeks.
• Watch Turkish and Black Sea export offers closely; persistent low prices cap Indian export opportunities.
• End-users encouraged to lock in short-term needs, but delay forward bookings unless global weather worsens.
• Bearish to neutral bias in the medium term unless global supply shocks occur.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/Location	Today (EUR/kg)	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
CBOT (US)	0.20	0.20	0.19	0.19
Euronext (Paris)	0.28	0.28	0.27	0.27
Odesa (UA)	0.18	0.18	0.18	0.18