Wheat Markets Rally: Ukraine Tension & Strong Demand Drive European Recovery

The global wheat market is at a pivotal crossroads as 2025 comes to an end, balancing geopolitical tensions, recovering European exchange prices, and diverging supply-demand factors. This week, wheat rebounded notably at Euronext (MATIF), recovering from previous losses, as traders fixated on supply disruptions from escalated Russian attacks on Ukrainian export infrastructure. With French wheat regaining competitiveness due to a softer euro and tight US old-crop inventories, European contracts have found renewed support. Meanwhile, global wheat flows are shaped by strong US exports, resilient Russian shipments despite higher insurance costs, and prospects of increased Ukrainian production for 2026/27. Yet, a hefty world crop and healthy crop prospects for new French and US winter wheat temper bullish ambitions. The upcoming WASDE report is highly anticipated, likely showing tightening US stocks versus ample global supply. Weather remains a focus, with favorable US and European winter wheat conditions boosting confidence, while uncertainty around Ukraine’s Black Sea logistics lingers. Below, we dissect prices, market drivers, outlooks, and actionable trading strategies for the wheat market.

📈 Wheat Prices at Major Exchanges

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Dec-25	€189.25/t	+0.00%	Bullish recovery after losses, supported by weak euro
CBOT	Dec-25	536.00 USc/bu	-0.28%	Mixed; export pace high but capped by strong crop ratings
ICE Feed Wheat	Jan-26	£165.05/t	+0.94%	Steady recovery; UK offers competitive feed wheat

🌍 Key Wheat Market Drivers

• Geopolitics: Russian attacks on Ukrainian grain ports increase uncertainty; insurance premiums for Black Sea shipments rise.
• Currency: A softer euro boosts French wheat export competitiveness.
• Supply Prospects: Argus pegs Ukraine’s 2026/27 wheat crop at 23.9 Mt, up 0.9 Mt YoY, due to bigger area and healthy pre-winter crops.
• USDA WASDE Preview: Street expects US ending stocks to be revised down, global stocks up.
• Speculative Positioning: CFTC data shows funds curbing shorts amid newfound support in physical markets.
• Russian Exports: SovEcon forecasts 3.9 Mt for Dec, higher YoY but down from a record Nov; world prices firm on demand.
• US Exports/Stocks: USDA reports 13.634 Mt exported since June 1, up 21% YoY. But favorable winter wheat ratings (Kansas: 70% good/excellent vs. 55% last year) limit rallies.
• Physical Market Offers: US wheat at €0.20/kg FOB, French at €0.27/kg FOB, Ukrainian at €0.19-€0.25/kg (various specs).

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

Country	2025/26 Export Est. (Mt)	2025/26 Production (Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt)
Russia	50+*	90*	18*
EU (France focus)	32*	135*	11*
Ukraine	16*	23.9 (2026/27 outlook)	4*
USA	18*	49*	17*
China	minimal	140*	137*

* Estimates subject to WASDE update

🌦️ Weather & Crop Update

• USA: Winter wheat in top condition; Kansas ‘good/excellent’ at 70% vs 55% last year.
• EU: Plantings mostly complete; mild autumn favoring crop establishment in France and Germany.
• Black Sea: Ukraine’s winter wheat also in good shape, though winterkill and input issues are still being watched.
• Short-Term Weather Forecast: No major threats expected next 7 days for Northern Hemisphere wheat belts. Favorable for crop establishment.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• Global output remains strong, led by Russia and China, with Ukraine expected to rebound in 2026/27.
• Inventories for 2025/26 show a divergence: US tightening, world stocks still ample due to record Black Sea and Chinese stocks.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Use current price recovery to hedge 2025/26 and 2026/27 sales, especially in Europe.
• Buyers: Consider forward bookings for Q1-Q2 2026, leveraging French and Ukrainian offers as logistics improve.
• Traders: Watch for volatility around WASDE and Ukraine crises; stay nimble with spreads between Euronext and CBOT.
• Speculators: Bias moderately bullish near-term on tightening US stocks, but temper expectations as global harvest prospects are excellent.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Exchange	Direction	Forecast Range	Driver
Euronext (MATIF) Dec-25	▲ Up/Sideways	€189–€192/t	Export optimism, weaker euro
CBOT Dec-25	▲ Up/Sideways	530–545 USc/bu	Export pace vs. strong crop
ICE Feed Wheat Jan-26	► Stable	£164–£167/t	Regional demand steady