Wheat Prices Rebound: Competitive Advantage, Geopolitical Risks & Global Surpluses Clash

The wheat market has staged a notable recovery after recent declines, drawing renewed attention from global traders and analysts. On the Euronext, wheat prices rebounded as concerns over export disruptions from Ukraine returned to the fore. Russian military attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure have led to logistical slowdowns, increasing risks for traders and tightening export flows. Meanwhile, a weaker euro has made French wheat significantly more attractive on the global stage, fostering a resurgence in demand and bolstering market prices. However, global supplies remain ample—a record global harvest, large available stocks, and a strong outlook for Ukraine’s 2026/27 crop temper trader enthusiasm for additional price rallies.
Markets are currently eyeing the upcoming USDA WASDE report, which is widely expected to lower US ending stocks forecasts for the 2025/26 cycle while raising global inventories. In Russia, rising demand is supporting export prices, while security risks—reflected in surging insurance premiums—continue to impact both Russian and Ukrainian wheat shipment costs.
In the US, wheat prices have been influenced by softness in corn and soybean markets, while robust export demand and improving crop conditions offer some price support. Yet, outstanding winter wheat conditions in key states such as Kansas (70% rated good/excellent) surpass last year’s benchmarks, further containing rally potential.
Do geopolitical developments trump world supply growth, or will ample harvests curb future gains? As the market balances bullish headlines against bearishly large harvests and robust crop health, traders are braced for volatility through the end of the year.

📈 Wheat Market Prices

Exchange/Contract	Last Price	Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF) Wheat Dec 25	190.00	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
Euronext (MATIF) Wheat Mar 26	190.25	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
CBOT Wheat Mar 26	533.50	-0.19%	US-Cent/bu	Neutral/Bearish
Feed Wheat May 26 (UK)	170.35	-0.53%	GBP/t	Bearish

 

🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot

• Global stockpiles: Large with positive trends for 2026. Ukrainian 2026/27 harvest forecast up to 23.9m t.
• USDA WASDE report: Markets expect lower US ending stocks for ’25/26, higher global wheat stocks.
• Export flows: Russian Dec exports seen at 3.9m t, topping last year. US wheat exports up 21% y/y since June.
• Europe: Strong export competitiveness for French wheat as euro weakens.
• Ukraine & Russia: Attacks on ports raise costs and risks, but Ukrainian/potential crops stand strong.
• Speculation: Managed money remains cautious given abundant inventories despite regional risks.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Ukraine: Crop prospects improved on expanded acreage and healthy pre-winter conditions.
• Russia: Export prices rise on demand. Insurance premiums suppress trade margins.
• United States: Crop progress strong; Kansas winter wheat rated 70% good/excellent vs 55% LY.
• Export sales: US wheat shipments (to Dec 4): 393,341 t (+2% WoW, +59% YoY), cumulative exports up 21% YoY.
• Demand: Europe: French wheat more competitive prompts increased buying interest.

⛅ Weather & Harvest Outlook

• Ukraine: Favorable early winter weather supports crop development; area expansion bodes well for 2026/27.
• Russia: No major weather threats reported; market remains attentive to infrastructure risks from conflict.
• United States: Mild December expected across southern Plains, supporting winter wheat yield potential.
• Europe: Mostly stable weather; some rainfall delays in France but overall crop health remains positive.

🏭 Global Stocks & Production

Country	2025/26 Prod. (mt)	2025/26 Ending Stocks (mt)
USA	51.1*	18.4*
Russia	88.0*	17.5*
Ukraine	23.0*	6.4*
EU	131.0*	13.0*
China (main importer)	139.0*	139.7*

* Estimates, subject to WASDE update.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect short-term volatility as markets digest WASDE and Ukraine-Russia headlines.
• End users may consider forward coverage on dips, especially for French/US high-protein wheat.
• Producers: Curb near-term selling unless price rallies, as fundamentals remain neutral to bearish post-2025 harvest.
• Speculators: Stay nimble; global surpluses counteract geopolitical risk premium.
• Monitor US export demand and winter wheat crop ratings for price support signals.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast

• Euronext (MATIF) Wheat Mar 26: 188–192 EUR/t (stable to slightly firm, demand support persists)
• CBOT Wheat Mar 26: 525–540 US-Cent/bu (sideways, all eyes on WASDE and export data)
• Feed Wheat May 26 (UK): 168–172 GBP/t (slightly pressured, ample local supply)