Turkish Dried Apricots: Firm EU Prices on Tight Stocks and Stable Weather

Turkish dried apricot prices are holding firm to slightly higher in Europe as buyers confront tight exportable stocks after last year’s severe frost and limited alternatives from other origins. Stable spring weather in Malatya removes immediate frost risk but does not change the underlying supply squeeze, keeping the market well supported in the short term.

With Turkish carry-over stocks already thin, current EU FCA prices for Turkish-origin dried apricot cubes are edging up by roughly EUR 0.05–0.10/kg over mid-March. Export references point to structurally high levels after the 2025 frost sharply cut the crop and pushed unit export prices above USD 7/kg, a level that has reset expectations along the chain. Recent Malatya weather is seasonally mild, with daytime highs around 17–18 °C and no sub-zero nights in the coming three days, removing the threat of fresh frost damage during early phenological stages. Demand from core destinations in the EU and UK remains steady, and alternative origins in Central Asia and Iran are unable to offset the Turkish shortfall. Overall, near-term price risks are skewed to the upside, especially for larger sizes and higher specifications.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

Fresh price indications for Turkish-origin dried apricots remain elevated but orderly. In the EU, FCA Northwest Europe offers for industrial cubes from Turkish origin show a clear upward step versus mid-March, reflecting persistent tightness and steady downstream demand. At origin, FOB Turkey quotations for both sulphured and unsulphured whole fruit remain high compared with pre-frost seasons but relatively stable over the last week, suggesting that the main repricing after the 2025 crop loss has already taken place. Export analyses published earlier in Q1 2026 describe Q1 dried apricot prices as “high and firm” on severe supply tightness, a narrative that remains valid today.

Product (TR origin)	Location / Term	Current Price (EUR/kg)	1-week Δ (EUR/kg)	Comment
Dried apricots, cubes no. 8–6	NL, FCA	≈5.50–5.95	+0.05–0.10	Firm industrial demand, limited TR supply
Dried apricots, cubes no. 5–0	NL, FCA	≈6.00–6.45	+0.10	Premium sizes leading gains
Whole dried, sulphured no. 8–3	TR, FOB	≈6.30–7.55	Flat	High but stable after prior jump
Whole dried, unsulphured no. 5–1	TR, FOB	≈7.80–8.65	Flat	Carry-over dominates supply

🌍 Supply, Demand & External Drivers

The current market is still digesting the impact of the severe frosts that hit Malatya and other apricot regions in April 2025, which Turkish and European industry sources describe as more damaging than the 2014 event. Export monitoring from Turkish institutions shows that, following the frost, monthly export volumes dropped more than 60% year-on-year at times, while unit export prices surged by nearly 47% to levels above USD 7/kg in late 2025. This has left limited physical stock to bridge the current season, especially of premium sizes and unsulphured fruit.

On the demand side, structural import patterns remain unchanged: the EU plus UK account for roughly 29,000 MT of Turkish dried apricot imports in an average year, with France, Germany, the UK and the Netherlands among the leading buyers. Reports from European food-service and ingredient buyers in early 2026 note that alternative suppliers in Central Asia and Iran are increasing exports but cannot fully offset the Turkish shortfall, keeping global availability tight and prices elevated.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook (Türkiye)

Short-term weather in Malatya, the core Turkish apricot region, looks benign. Forecasts for March 27–29 indicate daytime highs between 12–18 °C and overnight lows mostly in the 3–7 °C range, with a mix of sun, clouds and only light showers expected on the coolest day. Crucially, no sub-zero temperatures are projected in the next three days, so immediate frost risk to orchards is minimal at this stage.

Given the experience of April 2025, when an unseasonal cold spell with temperatures down to around –13 °C in some areas devastated apricot trees in and around Malatya, market participants remain highly vigilant about any new cold outbreaks through April. For now, however, the weather pattern is neutral to slightly supportive for sentiment, as the absence of fresh damage reduces tail‑risk but does not materially ease the structural tightness stemming from the prior crop loss.

📊 Fundamentals & Price Implications

Fundamental balances for Turkish dried apricots remain tight. Export data from 2025 show cumulative volumes in the first eight months down roughly 15% year-on-year, with revenue down about 20%, while average unit export prices stayed significantly above earlier years despite some intra‑year fluctuations. Commercial reports released in early 2026 emphasize that buyers should expect “limited availability and higher prices” through at least Q1–Q2 2026 due to short carry-over and constrained new‑season supply.

In this context, the modest week‑on‑week increases now visible in EU FCA prices for Turkish cubes are best seen as a continuation of an already firm trend rather than the start of a new spike. Origin quotations in Turkey are broadly steady on the week but remain historically high, and any renewed concern about spring frost in April would likely trigger another round of speculative price gains. Conversely, even with completely benign weather, significant downside in 2026 appears limited unless demand weakens sharply in key importing regions.

📆 3-Day Price & Trading Outlook

Over the coming three days (March 27–29), no major fundamental or weather shocks are expected for Turkish dried apricots. With Malatya temperatures staying safely above freezing and logistics running normally, the near‑term market tone should remain firm but orderly, with buyers continuing to pay up modestly for prompt, high‑quality lots rather than chasing prices aggressively.

📌 Trading Recommendations (Short Term)

• Buyers (EU importers/packers): Consider covering near‑term needs now at current FCA levels, particularly for larger sizes and unsulphured fruit, to hedge against April frost headlines or further stock tightening.
• Origin sellers (Türkiye): Maintain firm offer ideas; avoid aggressive discounting given limited carry‑over and the absence of downside weather surprises so far this spring.
• Industrial users: Where product specifications allow, evaluate partial substitution from alternative origins, but plan on Turkish material remaining the price benchmark for 2026 contracts.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Direction (Indicative)

Region / Term	Product Focus	3-Day View	Comment
Türkiye, FOB (Malatya / Ankara)	Whole dried, sulphured & unsulphured	🔼 to 🔁 (steady to slightly firmer)	Structural tightness; weather neutral, no new offers pressure.
EU (NL, PL), FCA	Industrial cubes, Turkish origin	🔼 (slightly firmer)	Ongoing small weekly increases as buyers secure Q2 needs.