Nepal Large Cardamom Exports Surge to Record, Prices Stay Firm

Nepal’s large cardamom market is in a strong upswing, with export volumes and values on track to hit historic highs while prices remain elevated on tight high-quality supply. Strong regional demand via the India–Pakistan corridor and growing global interest in premium smoky cardamom underpin a clearly bullish fundamental picture.

Exports from Nepal have already surpassed last year’s total well before the end of the fiscal year, and industry estimates point to record export revenues. Farmers are enjoying one of their most profitable seasons in years, helped by higher prices and improved production. At the same time, Indian green cardamom prices in New Delhi remain firm in EUR terms, suggesting broad strength across the cardamom complex and supporting Nepal’s premium positioning.

📈 Prices & Recent Developments

Export prices for Nepal’s large cardamom during the current harvest season are reported around USD 24–31 per kg (roughly EUR 22–29 per kg, assuming ~1.1 USD/EUR), up by about USD 1.8–2.4 per kg versus last season. This reflects both a structural tightening in high-quality supply and robust downstream demand in Pakistan and other re-export destinations.

In parallel, indicative offers for Indian green cardamom FOB New Delhi at the end of March 2026 show relatively stable but firm levels in the range of roughly EUR 15–22 per kg for most whole grades and around EUR 22–23 per kg for powder, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves. This confirms that the broader cardamom market remains well supported in price, even without aggressive short‑term spikes.

Product (India, FOB New Delhi)	Latest price (EUR/kg)	1-week change (EUR/kg)
Cardamom whole, green 6.0–6.5 mm, organic	~16.3	0.0
Cardamom whole, green 6.5–6.8 mm	~21.2	0.0
Cardamom whole, green 7.5–8 mm, organic	~18.1	≈+0.05
Cardamom whole, green 8 mm	~24.3	0.0
Cardamom powder, organic	~24.25	≈-0.10

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

Nepal has exported about 4,605 tonnes of large cardamom in the first eight months of the current fiscal year, already exceeding last year’s full‑year volume of 4,301 tonnes. Export values around USD 71.5 million to date imply a very strong season, with industry projections near USD 83 million by year‑end pointing to a new all‑time record for the sector.

Export volumes are up roughly 62.5% year‑on‑year, driven by both higher production and strong regional buying. India remains the dominant direct buyer of Nepali large cardamom and functions as a processing and redistribution hub. Around 60% of India’s cardamom exports are re‑routed to Pakistan, where consumer demand for the smoky, robust flavour profile is particularly strong in dishes like biryani and other festive foods.

This India–Pakistan re‑export structure effectively makes Pakistani demand a key price setter for high‑quality Nepalese large cardamom. At the same time, export data for the broader fiscal year show cardamom shipments from Nepal steadily rising toward the NPR 11 billion mark, confirming that demand is not only regionally concentrated but also broadening toward markets in the Middle East and other high‑value destinations.

📊 Fundamentals & Farmer Economics

The combination of rising prices and higher throughput has resulted in a significant income boost for growers. Farm‑gate returns during the current harvest have increased meaningfully compared with last season, reducing farmers’ incentives to hold back stock and encouraging more disciplined marketings.

Higher profitability is also triggering structural changes: farmers are expanding cultivation into new districts, while existing growers invest more in post‑harvest handling and traditional wood‑kiln drying that gives Nepalese large cardamom its distinctive smoky aroma. This quality attribute continues to command a price premium in export markets, particularly when compared with competing origins that rely on less distinctive drying methods.

On the supply side, production in Nepal has increased, but global availability of truly premium large cardamom remains limited. This is especially the case as neighbouring producers have not matched Nepal’s recent growth, and some regions have faced yield or area constraints. As a result, the market is tight but not yet overheated, with firm prices anchored by fundamentals rather than speculative spikes.

🌦️ Weather & Short-Term Outlook

While detailed near‑term weather data for specific cardamom‑growing pockets are limited in public reporting for the last few days, there are currently no major weather‑related disruptions highlighted for Nepal’s key producing districts. The main harvest window (October–November) is already past, so short‑term price action in early April is more sensitive to trade flows, logistics, and regional demand than to immediate field conditions.

Looking ahead, the core risks relate more to macro and trade factors than to weather: any disruption in overland trade with India, changes in Pakistan’s import appetite, or policy shifts affecting spice trade could quickly alter sentiment. For now, none of these risks have materialised at scale, and exporters expect demand to remain solid into the coming months.

📆 Market & Trading Outlook

• Bias: Market tone remains bullish for Nepalese large cardamom, with record export volumes and firm prices supported by strong India–Pakistan demand and constrained premium supply.
• Producers in Nepal: Current prices offer attractive margins; selectively locking in forward sales while continuing quality upgrades and careful stock management appears prudent to balance upside with risk control.
• Importers/Traders in India & Pakistan: Given elevated yet fundamentally justified prices, dips driven by short‑term liquidity or FX moves should be viewed as buying opportunities, especially for top‑grade smoky Nepal origin.
• Industrial users & retailers globally: Budgeting should assume persistently firm cardamom input costs through the current fiscal year; diversifying origins can mitigate risk, but matching Nepalese sensory profile may be challenging.

📉 3-Day Indicative Price Outlook (EUR)

• Nepal large cardamom export parity (India gateway): Expected to remain in the approximate range of EUR 22–29/kg, with a stable to slightly firmer bias given ongoing strong orders.
• India, New Delhi wholesale – green whole (FOB equivalent): Short‑term outlook is broadly sideways within current bands (roughly EUR 15–24/kg by grade), with only minor day‑to‑day fluctuations anticipated.
• Relative premium for top Nepal origin over standard grades: Likely to stay elevated, reflecting quality differentiation and tight availability of high‑end lots.