EU Rapeseed Rebound Sets Stage for Softer Prices and Stronger Crushing Margins

EU and global rapeseed supply are both swinging back into surplus territory for 2025/26, pointing to softer price pressure versus last year’s tight market and improved margins for European crushers and biodiesel producers.

After a difficult 2024/25 marked by weak yields, reduced area and elevated import needs, the EU rapeseed balance sheet is turning decisively more comfortable. A 20% rebound in EU output, combined with larger Canadian and Australian crops, reduces structural supply risk and should cap rallies in Euronext futures as long as spring weather co-operates. For now, Ukrainian and French physical offers signal a broadly stable but fragile market just above recent lows, with weather, energy prices and biodiesel policy the key swing factors into the 2026 harvest.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

Recent physical indications show a broadly stable rapeseed market in Europe and the Black Sea. FCA Ukrainian rapeseed is currently quoted around EUR 0.61–0.62/kg in Kyiv and Odesa, while a French FOB offer near Paris stands close to EUR 0.57/kg, after modest gains through late March.

On the futures side, Euronext Paris rapeseed contracts are trading slightly above EUR 500/t, with May and new-crop August/November 2026 clustered around EUR 500–505/t. This flat forward curve and firm but not extreme cash premiums are consistent with a market transitioning from the previous year’s tightness to a more balanced, weather-dependent outlook over the coming months.

🌍 Supply & Demand Shifts

EU rapeseed production for 2025/26 is forecast at 20.52 million tonnes, up 20% year on year from the preliminary 17.07 million tonnes in 2024/25. The increase is driven by both harvested area recovery to 6.14 million hectares and a yield rebound to 3.34 t/ha, after last season’s downturn to 5.73 million hectares and 2.98 t/ha.

This recovery directly addresses last season’s domestic shortfall, which had forced European buyers to ramp up imports from Canada, Australia and Ukraine. With output back to its highest level in recent years, EU crushers should rely less on overseas seed, easing logistical and geopolitical risk exposure and trimming import demand compared with the 2024/25 marketing year.

📊 Global Fundamentals

Globally, rapeseed fundamentals reinforce the more comfortable EU balance sheet. World rapeseed output in 2025/26 is projected at about 95.5 million tonnes, up roughly 10–11% from the 2023/24 baseline and also well above preliminary 2024/25 volumes. Key contributors include Canada at around 22 million tonnes (+14% y/y) and Australia near 7.7 million tonnes (+20% y/y), with Russia and India also posting year-on-year increases.

These gains reverse the earlier convergence of poor harvests in the EU, Canada and Australia that had tightened global availability and pushed European import prices sharply higher in 2024/25. Under the new outlook, importers will face more competition among origins, moderating premiums and reducing the risk of supply crunches for crushers that still need supplemental seed beyond EU production.

⚙️ Crushing, Biodiesel & Policy Drivers

A stronger EU crop directly benefits the bloc’s rapeseed crushing industry, concentrated in Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Poland. More domestic seed tightens basis levels around key plants, supports more efficient utilisation, and boosts availability of both rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, the latter competing with imported soybean meal in feed rations.

On the energy side, higher rapeseed oil output supports EU Renewable Energy Directive targets by providing domestically sourced feedstock for conventional biodiesel and hydrotreated vegetable oil. This is particularly important as regulatory and political pressure continues to limit the use of palm oil in European biodiesel. Stronger domestic rapeseed supply therefore enhances compliance options and reduces reliance on imported vegetable oils and waste-based feedstocks.

🌦️ Weather & Risk Outlook

In the immediate 30–90 day window, the key risk is weather during flowering and pod set in France, Germany, Poland and the UK. The current 3.34 t/ha yield assumption is contingent on avoiding late frost events, excessive rainfall or dry spells during pod fill. Disease pressure, especially Sclerotinia stem rot and other spring fungal pathogens, also bears close monitoring.

If spring conditions remain generally favourable, the 20.52 million tonne forecast is likely to be validated as harvest progresses between July and September 2026. Any significant weather shock, however, could quickly reintroduce risk premia into Euronext futures and tighten the EU balance sheet, especially if coinciding with issues in major export origins such as Canada or Australia.

📆 Price Table (Indicative, EUR)

Market	Location / Contract	Term	Price (EUR)	Comment
Physical rapeseed	Kyiv, UA (FCA)	Spot	0.61/kg	Stable last week
Physical rapeseed	Odesa, UA (FCA)	Spot	0.62/kg	Unchanged w/w
Physical rapeseed	Paris region, FR (FOB)	Spot	0.57/kg	Slightly firmer vs mid-March
Futures (Euronext)	Rapeseed May 2026	Nearby	≈500–506/t	Narrow range above EUR 500/t

🧭 Trading Outlook

• Crushers: Consider locking in a portion of 2026 new-crop coverage at or slightly above EUR 500/t on Euronext while the global balance is comfortable, but retain some open volume to benefit if favourable weather pushes prices lower into harvest.
• Producers: With EU production set to rise 20%, rallies on weather scares may be selling opportunities. Stagger forward sales to manage downside risk, focusing on periods of heightened volatility and strong basis.
• Importers: Expect reduced EU demand for Canadian and Ukrainian seed if the 20.52 million tonne crop materialises. Review long-term contracts and logistics exposure, as import volumes may need recalibration under a looser EU balance.

🔭 3‑Day Directional View (EUR)

• Euronext rapeseed futures (Paris): Likely to remain range-bound around EUR 500/t over the next three sessions, with modest downside bias if weather stays benign and energy markets remain volatile but off recent highs.
• Ukrainian FCA rapeseed (Kyiv/Odesa): Expected broadly stable near EUR 0.61–0.62/kg, supported by continued export demand and logistics constraints but capped by the improving EU crop outlook.
• French FOB physical: Mildly soft tone around EUR 0.57/kg is probable, with buyers cautious ahead of clearer signals on EU yield prospects and competing vegetable oil markets.