Cashew Kernels Hold Firm as Indian Prices Ease Slightly; RCN Costs Stay Elevated

Indian and Vietnamese cashew kernel prices are broadly steady to slightly softer this week, but persistently high raw cashew nut (RCN) costs keep a firm floor under the market. Indian New Delhi values have eased marginally, while Vietnam offers remain mostly stable, leaving nearby downside limited.

Cashew trade flows are shaped by tight RCN availability out of West Africa, elevated import offers above USD 1,500/mt, and cautious buying in Europe and parts of Asia. India’s kernel prices in New Delhi have edged down around 0.5–1% week-on-week, whereas Vietnam is described as firm but not rallying. With exporters facing higher freight and raw material costs, most are reluctant to discount aggressively; buyers are therefore negotiating within a narrow range rather than expecting a sharp correction.

📈 Prices & Spreads (all approx. in EUR)

Using an indicative rate of 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR and rounding:

Location / Grade	Term	Latest USD/kg	Latest EUR/kg (approx.)	WoW Move
Vietnam, Hanoi WW320	FOB	≈ 6.85	≈ 6.30	Stable
Vietnam, Hanoi WW240	FOB	≈ 7.75	≈ 7.13	Stable
India, New Delhi W320 (conv.)	FOB	≈ 6.90	≈ 6.35	▼ ~0.7%
India, New Delhi W240 (conv.)	FOB	≈ 7.41	≈ 6.82	▼ ~0.7%
Netherlands, Dordrecht WW320	FCA	≈ 4.95	≈ 4.55	▼ ~1%

Recent market commentary highlights that India and EU spot prices have softened modestly, while Vietnam’s kernel market is described as “firm” amid tight RCN supply.

🌍 Supply, Demand & RCN Costs

Buy-side sentiment is currently dominated by concerns over high RCN procurement costs. A leading trader report from April 13 notes imported RCN offers above USD 1,500/mt even for mid-range qualities, stressing that processors in India and Vietnam are struggling to maintain margins at current kernel levels. Additionally, trade intelligence points to West African harvest expectations potentially falling short of the previous season by up to several hundred thousand tonnes, tightening raw supply and underpinning kernel prices.

On the demand side, Vietnam remains a dominant origin with more than USD 5 billion in cashew export turnover in 2025 and continued strong positioning in key markets such as China, the US, the EU, the UAE and Germany. Middle Eastern buyers still value Vietnamese cashews for consistent quality, though exporters face broader pressure from higher freight costs and softer global food demand. In India, domestic retail and snack demand is seasonally decent but not aggressive enough to absorb higher replacement costs, which explains the mild easing in New Delhi spot kernel prices.

☀️ Weather Outlook – India (Key Cashew Belts)

For the next three days (April 14–16, 2026), forecasters indicate typical pre-monsoon conditions across major cashew-growing zones in India, including Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Goa, south Maharashtra and parts of Andhra Pradesh: generally hot daytime temperatures with scattered light showers or thunderstorms in some coastal districts. No organised heavy rainfall systems or extreme events are expected in the very short term, and flowering/nut-setting is largely past in many orchards.

As a result, weather is neutral for the immediate 3‑day price outlook: it neither adds fresh support nor triggers concern about short-term supply disruptions. The more relevant drivers this week remain RCN availability and international demand, rather than local climatic conditions.

📊 Market Drivers & Risks

• RCN tightness and cost inflation: High offers for African RCN above USD 1,500/mt and worries about below-normal West African output are preventing any major downside in kernels, even as demand hesitates.
• Vietnam export dynamics: Vietnam continues to aim for growth in processed nut exports and maintains stable supply to large buyers, despite reports of shipping and freight constraints.
• India & EU demand: Indian domestic kernel buying is described as softer, and EU buyers in the Netherlands show resistance to higher replacement costs, resulting in slight price discounts on spot FCA offers.
• Macro & currency: No extreme FX swings are reported over the past few days, so currency is a secondary factor compared with raw material and freight costs for now.

📌 Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Roasters / end-users (India & EU): Consider covering near-term needs on dips close to current EUR levels, as sustained RCN tightness reduces the probability of a deep correction before late April.
• Exporters (India): With FOB New Delhi W320 around mid‑EUR 6/kg equivalent, avoid undercutting Vietnam aggressively; focus on premiums for quality and certifications, while monitoring any further softening in local demand.
• Importers (EU): Given slightly weaker FCA prices in the Netherlands but firm upstream costs, stagger purchases rather than waiting for a sharp drop that current fundamentals do not justify.
• Speculative participants: Bias remains mildly bullish into late April, but upside looks gradual; strategies should prioritise carry and spreads rather than outright directional bets.

📆 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction, EUR)

• India – New Delhi, kernels (FOB/FCA): W320 and W240 expected to trade broadly sideways in EUR terms over the next three days, with a very slight downside bias if domestic buying stays cautious.
• Vietnam – Hanoi, kernels (FOB): WW320 and WW240 likely to remain firm to fractionally firmer in EUR, supported by strong RCN costs and export commitments.
• EU – Netherlands, Dordrecht (FCA): Spot WW320 and pieces may edge slightly softer or stable as buyers negotiate hard against higher replacement costs, but scope for large declines is limited.