Peru’s Wheat Demand Rises as Canada Tightens Its Grip on Imports

Peru’s wheat import needs are set to increase in 2026/27 while international prices remain relatively soft, reinforcing Canada’s dominant position in this high‑protein bread and pasta market. For exporters, Peru offers stable, quality‑driven demand more than volume volatility.

Peru’s wheat consumption is expanding on the back of steady GDP growth and urbanisation, while local production remains negligible. Imports are forecast to edge higher and will continue to be supplied duty‑free, supporting competitive landed costs. At the same time, CBOT wheat futures have traded in a narrow to slightly softer band in early April, keeping import parity attractive for Peruvian millers. With Canada providing the preferred high‑protein Hard Red Spring quality and Argentina and the United States filling secondary niches, Peru remains a structurally import‑dependent but predictable destination for exporters.

📈 Prices

International wheat prices into early April 2026 point to a relatively benign cost backdrop for importers like Peru. May 2026 CBOT wheat futures have been trading around EUR 0.20–0.21/kg equivalent at the close, reflecting modest recent declines and a brief rebound driven by geopolitical tensions and shifting weather risks in key producers.

Physical offers mirror this soft tone. Recent quotes show U.S. wheat (11.5% protein, CBOT‑linked) around EUR 0.21/kg FOB, French 11.0% protein wheat at roughly EUR 0.29/kg FOB, and Ukrainian 11.0% protein wheat near EUR 0.18–0.19/kg FOB, highlighting ample global availability and intense competition among origins. This pricing environment underpins Peru’s lower average landed cost of about EUR 0.25/kg in MY 2025, roughly 12% below the previous year on a dollar basis.

Origin	Specification	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)
US	Wheat, 11.5% protein (CBOT)	FOB Washington D.C.	0.21
France	Wheat, 11.0% protein	FOB Paris	0.29
Ukraine	Wheat, 11.0% protein	FOB Odesa	0.18

🌍 Supply & Demand

Peru’s wheat imports are forecast to rise from 2.16 MMT in MY 2025 to 2.24 MMT in MY 2026/2027, while total wheat consumption is projected at 2.43 MMT. The gap between use and domestic output will therefore continue to be covered almost entirely by imports, cementing Peru’s structural dependence on external suppliers.

Canada remains firmly in control of the Peruvian wheat market, holding about 80% share in MY 2024, followed by Argentina (around 11%) and the United States (about 8%). This pattern is unlikely to shift materially in 2026/27 because Peruvian millers strongly prefer Canadian Hard Red Spring wheat for its higher protein content and superior flour extensibility and elasticity, which are essential for bread and pasta quality.

On the global side, recent analysis suggests that the 2025/26 and early 2026/27 wheat balance sheets will stay comfortable but not burdensome. USDA’s latest outlook still points to growing global wheat supply despite a downward revision in Ukraine’s export forecast, while Canada and other major exporters remain competitive on price.

📊 Fundamentals & Policy

Fundamentally, Peru’s wheat demand is anchored in macroeconomic and demographic trends rather than short‑term price swings. GDP grew by 3.4% in 2025, and ongoing urbanisation is lifting consumption of bread and pasta products, which are heavily wheat‑based. This underpins the forecast 2.43 MMT of wheat use in MY 2026/2027 and supports stable to slightly rising import volumes.

On the policy side, wheat enters Peru duty‑free from all origins and is not subject to the Price Band System that applies to corn and rice. This creates a level playing field on tariffs and means that origin competitiveness is driven mainly by quality, freight and pricing, rather than by differential border protection. In contrast to corn, there is no GMO‑related constraint shaping wheat supply, so Peru can freely source high‑protein spring wheat as needed from Canada and complement it with medium‑protein supplies from Argentina or the United States.

Global market fundamentals also remain broadly supportive of Peru’s buyers. Canada’s 2025/26 and early 2026/27 export programmes are advancing at a slightly faster pace than the previous year, but carry‑out stocks are not expected to be tight. Combined with still‑ample Black Sea and EU supplies, this points to continued competition among exporters to serve quality‑sensitive markets like Peru.

🌦 Weather & Risk Factors

Weather‑related risks for Peru’s wheat supply are concentrated outside its borders, since the country is almost entirely import‑reliant. In North America, late‑season snow and mixed conditions across the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Plains have raised some short‑term uncertainty around spring wheat planting pace, but current assessments do not yet point to a major production shock.

More broadly, markets are keeping a close eye on the indirect impact of elevated energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions and the ongoing 2026 Iran‑related oil supply shock. Higher fuel and fertiliser costs could lift production and freight expenses for exporters, potentially feeding into wheat prices later in the 2026/27 season. For now, however, these risks are being offset by comfortable global stocks and strong competition between origins.

📆 Trading Outlook

• Peruvian millers: The current combination of soft international prices and duty‑free access favours extending coverage for high‑protein spring wheat over the next 3–6 months, especially from Canada, while selectively using Argentine or U.S. wheat to optimise blends and freight.
• Exporters (Canada, Argentina, U.S.): Peru remains a stable, quality‑driven market with modest volume growth. Suppliers should focus on maintaining technical service and quality consistency rather than aggressive pricing alone, given millers’ strong preference for Canadian HRS characteristics.
• Speculators and hedgers: With global supply still comfortable but geopolitical and weather risks simmering, price volatility around CBOT wheat is likely to persist. Using options or flexible hedge structures may be prudent to protect margins while preserving upside from potential weather‑ or energy‑driven rallies.

🧭 3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR‑denominated)

• CBOT wheat (EUR‑equivalent): Sideways to slightly firm, tracking geopolitical headlines and short‑covering after recent softness.
• EU (Paris) wheat FOB: Stable, with modest support from currency moves and regional logistics but capped by competitive Black Sea offers.
• Black Sea (Ukraine) FOB: Largely steady, remaining the lowest‑priced major origin and setting the floor for global export competition.