Euronext wheat remains under pressure from a strong euro and sluggish export demand, pushing the May front month to its lowest level in almost two months, while CBOT contracts firm on weather concerns and spillover support from corn and soybeans.
Across Europe, generally good crop prospects and historically high French ending stocks cap the upside, even as Germany’s 2026 wheat harvest is now seen only slightly below last year. In the US, worries about dryness in the Southern Plains and upcoming USDA export data are lending the market a cautiously bullish short‑term tone.
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📈 Prices & Spreads
Euronext wheat futures continue to trade heavy, with the May 2026 contract closing at the weakest level in nearly two months, pressured by the firm euro and lacklustre Western European export demand. This is consistent with a broader pattern of low but stabilising international prices, as global supply remains comfortable.
In Chicago, SRW wheat is firmer, supported by higher corn and soybean prices and short‑covering. Latest quotes show May 2026 CBOT wheat around 5.90–6.00 USc/bu, equivalent to roughly EUR 210–215/t at current FX levels, slightly above levels reported earlier this week.
| Origin / Product | Spec (protein) | Location / Term | Spot indication (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| US, CBOT-linked | min. 11.5% | FOB Washington D.C. | 0.21 |
| France | min. 11.0% | FOB Paris | 0.29 |
| Ukraine | min. 11.0% | FOB Odesa | 0.18 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
European supply fundamentals remain comfortable. Germany’s farm cooperative association now pegs the 2026 wheat harvest at about 22.38 million tonnes, just 3.3% below last year’s very good crop and 100,000 t higher than its March estimate. This confirms broadly favourable yield expectations and reinforces the view of ample regional availabilities.
In France, the agency FranceAgriMer has kept its 2025/26 soft wheat export forecast to non‑EU destinations unchanged at 7.10 million tonnes, ending four months of downward revisions. At the same time, it raised intra‑EU soft wheat shipments from 7.57 million to 7.70 million tonnes, reflecting solid internal demand within the bloc and some re‑routing of flows away from third‑country destinations.
Despite the slightly stronger intra‑EU trade outlook, FranceAgriMer still sees French soft wheat ending stocks in 2025/26 at about 3.31 million tonnes, only marginally lower than last month and roughly one‑third above last season’s level, marking a 10‑year high. Such stock burdens are a key factor limiting price recovery on Euronext, especially in combination with the strong euro, which undermines export competitiveness against Black Sea and US origins.
Outside Europe, US wheat demand remains modest but steady. The USDA’s weekly export sales report for the week to 9 April is due today, with trade expectations for both old‑ and new‑crop wheat in a fairly cautious 75,000–250,000 t range. This reflects ongoing competition from cheaper origins and a still‑ample global balance sheet, even as some importers begin to cover 2026/27 needs more actively.
📊 Fundamentals & Weather
Weather is becoming a more prominent driver for US prices. Dryness in the Southern Plains has raised concern about yield potential for hard red winter wheat, especially after earlier stress led some fields to be grazed rather than taken to grain. Recent drought assessments highlight significantly stressed winter wheat in parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, although medium‑range forecasts point to a transition towards wetter conditions, potentially alleviating the worst impacts.
In the nearer term, however, the region faces volatile conditions: active storm systems this week are bringing episodes of heavy rainfall, hail and severe thunderstorms across parts of the Plains and Midwest. While such events can improve soil moisture in some localities, they also carry risks of lodging, erosion and field damage if rainfall is excessive.
In Europe, good crop prospects dominate the narrative. So far there are no widespread weather threats seriously challenging the positive yield outlook, and incremental upward revisions to production estimates, such as in Germany, reinforce the perception of a well‑supplied EU market into 2026. Combined with high French stocks, this keeps the global wheat balance comfortable and caps risk premiums in new‑crop futures.
📌 Trading Outlook
- EU consumers (millers, feed users): The combination of a strong euro, weak export demand and high French stocks argues for a patient, scale‑down buying strategy on Euronext. Short‑term downside may be limited, but the fundamental backdrop remains bearish-to-neutral; consider layering in coverage on further dips rather than chasing rallies.
- EU producers: With May futures at two‑month lows and comfortable supply expectations, price risk lies mainly to the downside unless meaningful weather stress emerges. Consider using modest hedges in new‑crop positions, especially where production costs are already covered at current forward prices.
- US exporters: Current CBOT levels, supported by corn/soy strength and weather risk, could face headwinds if rains materialise in the Southern Plains and USDA export sales disappoint. Monitor today’s sales data closely; weaker‑than‑expected volumes may justify limited short hedges or options strategies.
- Importers in MENA/Asia: Abundant EU and Black Sea supply and high French stocks maintain a buyer’s market. Diversifying coverage between EU, US and Ukrainian origins may secure competitive premiums, with Ukrainian FOB Odesa indications particularly attractive relative to French and US offers.
📆 3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR terms)
- Euronext (Paris) milling wheat: Slight downside to sideways bias over the next three sessions as strong euro and heavy stocks outweigh modest US support; small technical bounces possible but trend remains soft.
- CBOT (Chicago) SRW wheat: Sideways to slightly firmer, with weather‑driven support and spillover from corn and soybeans tempered by cautious export demand and anticipation of USDA sales data.
- Physical FOB Black Sea (Ukraine): Largely stable in EUR terms, retaining a competitive discount to EU origins and likely to attract incremental demand on any further Euronext weakness.
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