Record EU Rapeseed Crop Ahead, But Global Demand Keeps Prices Supported

Stronger EU supply in 2026/27 is meeting robust global demand and export uncertainties, keeping the rapeseed market tight and prices underpinned rather than bearish.

With record EU sowings, higher stocks and mostly favourable crop conditions, the 2026/27 season is shaping up as a high-supply year. Yet tighter export availability from Canada, uncertain Australian weather and strong biodiesel-driven demand are preventing any clear surplus and maintaining firm forward price expectations.

📈 Prices

Physical rapeseed offers in Europe and the Black Sea have been broadly stable in recent weeks. French origin rapeseed FOB Paris is indicated around 0.57 EUR/kg (≈570 EUR/t), unchanged since mid-April after a small rise from late March levels. Ukrainian 42% oil rapeseed FCA Odesa and Kyiv trades slightly higher at about 0.61–0.62 EUR/kg (≈610–620 EUR/t), also flat over the last fortnight.

On the futures side, nearby Euronext rapeseed is holding just above 500 EUR/t, with the May 2026 contract recently quoted around 508 EUR/t and a notably flat forward curve through 2028, signalling a broadly balanced medium‑term outlook rather than a steep contango or backwardation.    

Origin	Location / Term	Price (EUR/t)	Trend (last 4 weeks)
France	FOB Paris	~570	Slightly firmer, now stable
Ukraine	FCA Odesa	~620	Stable
Ukraine	FCA Kyiv	~610	Stable
EU benchmark	MATIF nearby	~505–510	Firm, flat forward curve

🌍 Supply & Demand

The EU is heading towards a record rapeseed crop in 2026/27. Production is projected at 20.97 million tonnes, about 0.4 million tonnes above the previous season, driven by record winter sowings and generally favourable soil moisture in key producing regions. At the same time, carry-in stocks are expected to rise by roughly 1 million tonnes to 1.33 million tonnes, significantly enhancing opening supply.

Globally, however, the supply picture is less comfortable. Canada, a key exporter, is expected to see rapeseed (canola) output ease to around 21.4 million tonnes, down about 1.8% year-on-year, just as domestic processing demand is forecast to increase sharply by 9–11%, largely for biodiesel linked to US demand. This will likely curb export availability even if production remains relatively high.

Australia is forecast to produce about 17.6 million tonnes in 2026/27, but weather-related risks mean the outlook is fragile. Combined with strong Chinese and Canadian processing demand, this keeps global exportable surplus constrained despite the EU’s record crop and increasing stocks.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather

Structurally, the global rapeseed balance is shaped by expanding acreage and strong oil demand. International analysts see total world rapeseed production setting a new record above 86 million tonnes in 2026/27, driven by record area and broadly favourable weather signals in major producers. Yet the demand side – especially for biofuels and food oil – continues to grow, absorbing much of the incremental output.

Recent weather updates indicate mixed but generally acceptable conditions. In Europe, dry spells have appeared in parts of central and northern regions, while southern areas have benefited from better soil moisture, supporting winter rapeseed development overall. In East Asia, recent rainfall has improved moisture for Chinese rapeseed crops, while mostly dry, warmer weather in parts of Australia has so far not significantly altered rapeseed yield expectations.

📆 Market & Trading Outlook

Despite higher EU production and stocks, the rapeseed market is likely to stay relatively tight in 2026/27, with prices supported by strong crush margins, robust biodiesel demand and constrained export flows from Canada and potentially Australia. The flat MATIF forward curve around 500 EUR/t reflects expectations of a balanced but not oversupplied market.

• Producers (EU): Consider incremental hedging on further rallies above 520–530 EUR/t for new-crop positions, while keeping some open exposure in case of weather or logistics disruptions in competing origins.
• Crushers: Maintain hand-to-mouth nearby coverage, but look to extend coverage on price dips toward the 495 EUR/t area on MATIF if global oilseed and energy markets remain firm.
• Importers: Monitor Canadian crush expansion and Australian weather closely; early booking of EU or Black Sea origin may mitigate the risk of tighter export availability later in the season.

📌 3-Day Directional View (Key Hubs)

• MATIF futures (EU): Slightly firmer bias, with trade expected to hold in a broad 495–515 EUR/t range as markets digest record EU crop expectations versus tight global exports.
• Physical EU (FOB France): Sideways to modestly supported, tracking futures and crush margins with limited farmer selling ahead of new-crop clarity.
• Black Sea (FCA Ukraine): Largely stable, with basis levels anchored by freight and risk premiums but underpinned by solid international demand.