Bangladesh Corn Imports Surge as Feed Demand Booms and Brazil Dominates Supply

Bangladesh’s corn market is in an expansion phase, with imports projected around 1.8 million tonnes in 2025/26 and structurally strong feed demand underpinning continued buying. Softer world prices, ample Brazilian supply and the return of US-origin corn are easing procurement costs and encouraging stock-building by feed mills.

Bangladesh’s rapidly growing poultry and livestock sectors are at the core of this shift, pushing corn consumption beyond what domestic production can cover. Import demand remains robust in the short term, even as local output inches higher and carryover stocks are set to build. Supplier dynamics are also changing: Brazil now dominates the import mix, India is losing share as its own consumption and biofuel use rise, and the US has re-emerged as a relevant, though still secondary, origin.

📈 Prices & Trade Flows

Global corn values remain relatively soft, supporting aggressive import programs into Bangladesh’s feed sector. Recent transactional benchmarks in Europe and the Black Sea confirm a weak price environment: French yellow corn FOB Paris trades near EUR 0.23/kg, while Ukrainian corn FOB Odesa is around EUR 0.17/kg, with feed-grade FCA offers closer to EUR 0.24/kg. These levels translate into attractive landed costs into Chattogram once freight is added, especially for Brazil and the US.

Against this backdrop, Bangladesh’s corn imports are projected at roughly 1.8 million tonnes for 2025/26, up about 27% year on year, before easing modestly to about 1.7 million tonnes in 2026/27 as domestic production and carryover stocks increase. Brazil supplies nearly 78% of current-season imports, firmly positioned as the cost leader. The US, having shipped around 160,000 tonnes after returning to this market in early 2026, now accounts for roughly 11% of Bangladesh’s import basket, while India’s presence has shrunk on tighter export availability.

Product / Origin	Location / Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1-week Change
Corn, yellow – France	Paris, FOB	0.23	-0.01
Corn – Ukraine	Odesa, FOB	0.17	-0.01
Corn, yellow feed – Ukraine	Odesa, FCA	0.24	0.00

🌍 Supply, Demand & Structural Shifts

Domestic corn output in Bangladesh is trending higher but still covers only a minority of total demand, with imports estimated to account for roughly 70% of consumption by key industry stakeholders. Rapid expansion of feed manufacturing for poultry and livestock is the main driver, with corn remaining the core energy ingredient in rations. Lower international prices have allowed feed mills to secure larger volumes and build strategic stocks, reducing short-term price risk.

On the supplier side, Brazil has emerged as the dominant origin thanks to strong crop performance and competitive pricing, displacing India’s earlier role as primary supplier. India’s exportable surplus is constrained by rising domestic feed use and increased diversion of corn into biofuel, limiting its ability to service traditional markets like Bangladesh. At the same time, US exporters have re-entered Bangladesh after several years away, signalling a more diversified supplier base and offering importers additional flexibility in managing quality, logistics and pricing.

📊 Fundamentals & External Drivers

Global fundamentals are broadly supportive of continued easy access to corn for Bangladesh in the near term. Recent USDA feed and grain outlooks confirm increased world coarse grain supply for 2025/26, with higher corn production in several key producers and only gradual demand growth. This contributes to a generally comfortable global balance and keeps a lid on price rallies, to the benefit of import-dependent buyers such as Bangladeshi feed manufacturers.

Regionally, India’s corn production and feed use are both rising, which, combined with growing ethanol demand, is tightening that country’s export availability and structurally shifting Bangladesh’s sourcing pattern towards Brazil and, increasingly, the US. While no immediate weather shocks are reported in major exporting regions, any deterioration in Brazil’s or the US Midwest’s weather later in 2026 could quickly feed into higher replacement costs. For now, however, the combination of robust export capacity in Brazil and increased US export ambitions underpins comfortable supply for South Asian buyers.

⛅ Weather & Production Outlook

Weather conditions in key exporting regions remain generally favourable. Brazil’s 2025/26 and 2026/27 corn crops are supported by adequate moisture in major producing states, while the US is preparing for another large corn area, maintaining strong export potential. Current forecasts do not indicate acute stress that would threaten exportable surpluses in the short term, although market attention will increasingly focus on mid-year developments in the US Corn Belt.

Within Bangladesh, gradual improvements in agronomic practices and area expansion are expected to lift domestic corn production over the coming seasons. However, yields and total output remain insufficient to displace imports meaningfully, especially given the fast-growing feed sector. The anticipated slight reduction in imports to around 1.7 million tonnes in 2026/27 reflects improved local harvests and higher carryover, rather than any slowdown in underlying demand.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

• Importers / Feed Mills: Use the current soft international price environment to extend coverage for late-2025/26 and early-2026/27 needs, particularly from Brazil, while selectively diversifying with US-origin cargoes to manage quality and logistics risk.
• Producers / Exporters: Brazilian and US sellers should view Bangladesh as a structurally growing destination, with opportunities to expand market share as India’s exportable surplus tightens.
• Risk Management: Consider layering in optionality (e.g., call options or flexible delivery windows) against potential weather-related price spikes later in 2026, while spot and nearby positions remain well-supplied.

In the next three days, international corn offers into South Asia are expected to remain broadly stable in EUR terms, tracking a sideways-to-soft tone on major exchanges. Basis levels for Brazilian and Black Sea origins are likely to stay competitive, supporting continued import interest from Bangladesh’s feed sector without significant near-term price pressure.