Tight Hazelnut Supply Lifts Georgian Export Values as EU Demand Stays Firm

Georgian hazelnut export values are climbing sharply despite softer shipments, highlighting firm EU demand and a preference for higher‑value kernels. Regional price indications show Georgian kernels trading at a clear premium to Turkish origin, underscoring tight availability of quality material.

Georgia’s hazelnut sector entered 2026 with resilient pricing power. In March, export volumes slipped, yet revenue jumped on stronger unit prices and an ongoing shift from in‑shell nuts to shelled kernels. EU destinations such as Italy, Spain, Germany, France and Greece remain the key buyers and continue to absorb most of the crop. At the same time, Georgian almond trade is becoming more import‑oriented, with rapidly rising inbound volumes from Azerbaijan and Turkey and virtually no exports, pointing to a stronger domestic nut processing and consumption base.

📈 Prices

Current spot offers (late April 2026) show Turkish hazelnut kernels FOB Istanbul at around EUR 8.05–8.53/kg for natural 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm sizes, while roasted meal and diced products trade lower at about EUR 6.60–7.60/kg. Georgian kernels ex-warehouse Warsaw are quoted significantly higher, around EUR 10.60–11.35/kg FCA for 11–13 mm, 13–15 mm and 15+ sizes, confirming a pronounced origin and quality premium.

Over April, Turkish natural kernel prices dipped sharply from early‑month levels above EUR 8.70–10.80/kg, before partially recovering by the end of the month. Georgian kernel prices in the EU logistics hub remained relatively stable, inching slightly lower but holding firmly above EUR 10.50/kg. The widening differential between Georgian and Turkish offers underscores continued tightness for high‑quality Georgian kernels and solid EU demand.

🌍 Supply & Demand

In March 2026, Georgia exported about 1,300 tonnes of hazelnuts worth roughly EUR 13.1 million (USD 14.3 million), implying an average export price near EUR 10.1/kg. Compared with March 2025, export volume declined by 8% (about 113 tonnes), yet export revenue rose by 39% (around EUR 3.7 million), underlining strong price gains and an upgraded product mix toward kernels.

From 1 August 2025 to 31 March 2026, Georgia shipped 10,700 tonnes of hazelnuts to the EU, maintaining the bloc as its dominant outlet. Additional flows included around 1,100 tonnes to Syria, 557 tonnes to Russia and 516 tonnes to Armenia, plus smaller destinations. This diversified buyer base reduces single‑market risk but leaves overall trade still heavily EU‑centric, where confectionery and bakery industries anchor demand.

📊 Fundamentals & Trade Flows

Recent years have seen both export volumes and prices for Georgian hazelnuts trend higher, driven largely by a strategic move toward exporting more shelled kernels rather than in‑shell nuts. Kernels command higher unit values and face stronger year‑round demand from industrial users, supporting the observed revenue growth even when physical shipments soften.

Parallel to hazelnuts, Georgia’s almond trade profile is shifting. In Q1 2026, almond imports surged to 297 tonnes worth about EUR 579,000, up more than threefold in both volume and value year on year. Azerbaijan supplied the bulk of in‑shell almonds (264 tonnes, roughly EUR 416,000), with Turkey providing the remainder. Georgia recorded no in‑shell almond exports during this period, compared with 13 tonnes a year earlier, suggesting rising domestic consumption and processing capacity rather than re‑export activity.

🌤 Weather & Crop Outlook

With the current marketing season already advanced, near‑term export performance is more influenced by existing inventories and contract coverage than by immediate weather shifts. Nonetheless, upcoming weather in the wider Black Sea hazelnut belt, particularly during flowering and nut‑setting stages, will be crucial for the 2026/27 crop potential and thus for forward pricing.

For now, the key fundamental signal is that existing Georgian stocks of good‑quality kernels appear tight relative to EU demand, as indicated by elevated export unit values and domestic price levels. Market participants will closely monitor orchard conditions in Georgia and neighboring origins, alongside currency moves and potential policy changes affecting trade flows.

📆 Trading Outlook

• EU buyers: Consider covering a portion of 2026/27 needs early, especially for premium Georgian kernels, given the persistent price premium and evidence of tight quality supply.
• Georgian exporters: Current price strength and high EU demand favor a disciplined sales pace, prioritizing value‑added kernels and spread‑out contracting rather than aggressive volume pushing.
• Turkish and regional buyers: Monitor the widening Georgian–Turkish price gap; opportunities may emerge to substitute some demand with competitively priced Turkish kernels where specifications allow.
• Industry processors: Factor in rising almond imports into Georgia as a signal of broader nut demand growth, which could sustain firm kernel pricing across segments.

📉 Short-Term Price Direction (3-Day View)

• Turkish kernels (FOB Istanbul): Sideways to slightly firm in EUR terms as the market consolidates after April’s correction.
• Georgian kernels (FCA Central Europe): Stable at elevated levels; limited downside expected given tight high‑quality supply and ongoing EU demand.
• EU import parity: Slight upward bias for top‑grade kernels; lower‑grade and processed products likely to track in a narrow range.