Cashew Kernels Hold Firm as India Softens Slightly and Vietnam Stays Bid

Cashew kernel prices are broadly stable, with Vietnam’s export offer levels firm and India showing a mild softening on strong domestic supply. Weather risks are low in the very short term, and trade flows remain smooth, keeping near‑term downside limited but also capping upside.

Global buyers see a balanced market: Vietnam continues to capture export demand with competitive WW320 offers, while India’s slightly easier New Delhi values reflect resilient domestic consumption and comfortable raw nut availability. Export price dashboards for Q2 point to sideways trading ranges for both origins, suggesting that current levels are broadly in line with fundamentals. For now, the market is trading more on logistics, regional demand pulses and currency moves than on any clear supply shock.

📈 Prices & Differentiels

Origin	Grade	Location / Term	Latest price (EUR/kg)	1-week trend
Vietnam	WW320	Hanoi FOB	≈ 6.30	Stable
Vietnam	WW240	Hanoi FOB	≈ 7.15	Stable
India	W320	New Delhi FOB	≈ 6.35	Slightly softer
India	W240	New Delhi FOB	≈ 6.80	Slightly softer

(USD kernel indications from Vietnamese packers at around 7.1–7.4 USD/kg FOB for WW320 convert to roughly 6.3–6.6 EUR/kg at current FX, consistent with quoted ranges for new crop 2026. Indian government dashboards put export prices for Q2 2026 around 7,800–8,000 USD/ton for kernels, i.e. about 6.9–7.1 EUR/kg, but with a sideways bias for February–April 2026. Against that backdrop, spot physical offers from both origins look fairly valued rather than cheap or stretched.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

Vietnam remains the dominant kernel exporter and continues to pull in large volumes of raw nuts: domestic orchards cover only just over 10% of the industry’s raw material needs, forcing processors to rely heavily on West African supplies. Recent customs data show March 2026 cashew exports from Vietnam jumping more than 100% month‑on‑month, with particularly strong shipments to the US and China, underlining solid downstream demand.

In India, APEDA’s latest cashew dashboard highlights that domestic demand still absorbs the bulk of supply, with exports accounting for only around 5–6% of total availability. This domestic buffer, plus steady import flows of raw nuts, is helping keep kernel export prices in check even as global demand recovers. Government export price outlooks for February–April (FMA) 2026 signal a sideways bias for both India and Vietnam, with only small negative year‑on‑year changes.

On the production side, the latest industry balance sheet from the international nut sector points to rising global raw cashew output in 2025/26, led by West Africa, while India’s crop is also projected higher and Vietnam’s slightly lower. Overall, this keeps the kernel market well supplied but not oversupplied, as consumption growth in core markets (US, EU, Asia) remains underpinned by the healthy‑snacking trend.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook (IN, VN)

In India, May is climatologically the hottest month in much of the country, just before the onset of the southwest monsoon in late May or early June. The India Meteorological Department’s latest seasonal outlook, released last week, calls for near‑normal to slightly above‑normal monsoon rainfall for June–September 2026, reducing the risk of significant moisture stress for cashew orchards in key coastal states. For the coming three days, no disruptive weather is expected in major cashew belts; short‑term price impact from weather is therefore minimal.

In Vietnam, there are currently no reports of acute weather shocks across the main Southeast and Central Highlands growing regions in very recent days, and logistics through main ports remain smooth. With the main raw nut procurement season well underway and strong import links to West Africa, near‑term supply risk looks modest; prices are moving more on demand and freight than on fields.

📊 Fundamentals & External Factors

Export‑oriented Vietnamese processors face a structurally tight raw nut balance and rising competition for African supplies, but this is partly offset by efficiency gains and scale. The cashew association notes that the country imports roughly 90% of its raw nuts, implying sensitivity to farm‑gate price moves in Ivory Coast and other African origins. Recent cuts to official farm‑gate prices in Ivory Coast signal some easing of raw material costs, but also reflect uncertainty around US kernel demand.

For India, official cashew dashboards emphasize that kernel export prices are likely to trade sideways over the February–April window, with only minor percentage changes versus last year. Combined with strong domestic absorption, this suggests limited downside for international buyers looking at Indian origin, yet also a cap on sharp rallies unless weather or policy shocks emerge. Globally, the nut industry’s latest statistics indicate that 2025/26 world raw cashew supply should grow by about 20% versus 2024/25, driven mainly by West African expansion, which reinforces a medium‑term picture of comfortable availability.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

• For buyers: Consider scaling in coverage at current Vietnam WW320 and WW240 levels, which sit near the mid‑point of official Q2 guidance and reflect firm, but not overheated, fundamentals. Prioritize flexible shipment windows to hedge any freight volatility.
• For Indian origin users: Take advantage of the slightly softer New Delhi FOB values to extend coverage modestly, but avoid over‑buying ahead of the monsoon; domestic demand and sideways government outlook argue for a broadly range‑bound market.
• For sellers and processors: Maintain disciplined offer levels; strong March export data out of Vietnam and stable Indian domestic offtake support holding prices rather than chasing volume with discounts.

3‑day directional outlook (all in EUR terms):

• Vietnam (Hanoi, WW320 FOB): Stable to slightly firmer; firm export demand and steady raw nut costs support current offers.
• India (New Delhi, W320 FOB): Stable to marginally softer bias; strong domestic supply and sideways export outlook keep a mild downward tilt.