Cashew Kernels Drift Slightly Softer as Tight RCN Caps Downside

Prices for cashew kernels in India and the Netherlands are edging slightly softer this week, but tight and costly African raw cashew nut (RCN) supply is preventing any sharp downside. Marginal grade‑wise adjustments and steady demand in key import hubs keep the market broadly sideways. Buyers see increased competition from Vietnam, where FOB offers remain aggressive, yet Indian kernels retain a quality premium and firm domestic support.

Cashew trade flows are stabilising after earlier logistics disruptions through the Middle East, with India’s overall export sentiment improving in April and Vietnam reporting strong March cashew export growth. Weather over the next three days looks seasonally warm in New Delhi and mild, occasionally showery in Dordrecht, but without immediate production or logistics threats. Against this backdrop, spot kernel prices in both regions are expected to trade in a narrow band, with a slight soft bias for broken grades and value segments.

📈 Prices & Spreads (all approx. EUR/kg)

Region	Grade / Type	Term	Latest Price	1W Change
India – New Delhi	LWP (non‑organic)	FOB	~€5.65	Flat vs 25 Apr
India – New Delhi	W320 (non‑organic)	FCA	~€6.75	+€0.01
India – New Delhi	W240 (non‑organic)	FCA	~€6.86	+€0.02
Netherlands – Dordrecht	WW320 (non‑organic)	FCA	~€4.88	‑€0.02
Netherlands – Dordrecht	LWP (non‑organic)	FCA	~€3.43	‑€0.02
Netherlands – Dordrecht	SWP (non‑organic)	FCA	~€2.93	‑€0.02

Note: USD and local‑currency offers converted to EUR for comparability using prevailing FX assumptions.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Global kernel prices remain broadly steady in late April, with only small grade‑specific moves in India, Vietnam and the EU as tight African RCN availability and high raw nut prices cap any significant downside for kernels. Vietnamese processors are pushing exports: March cashew shipments jumped more than 100% month‑on‑month to about US$346 million, led by strong demand from the US and China, reinforcing Vietnam’s role as a low‑cost kernel supplier competing with Indian offers.

On the Indian side, official dashboards still describe the Q2 2026 export price outlook for kernels as “sideways”, with average export values slightly below last year, signalling a balanced but not oversupplied market. Domestic demand remains a key buffer, partially offsetting softer Middle East orders amid ongoing logistics and geopolitical issues. Overall merchandise exports from India showed healthy growth in April, supporting a more positive trade sentiment for value‑added agri products, including cashew.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Angle (IN, NL)

In India, policy focus on high‑value crops such as cashew in coastal regions underscores continued medium‑term support for the sector, even as higher raw nut, packaging and freight costs erode export competitiveness versus Vietnam. Government cashew dashboards project a sideways price range for Indian kernel exports over the FMA (Feb–Apr) 2026 window, consistent with the current marginal week‑on‑week price gains in key grades like W320.

Weather over the coming three days in New Delhi is very warm and hazy, with highs around 39–40°C and only a risk of isolated thunderstorms, which is typical for the season and not yet disruptive for processing or local logistics. Dordrecht, a key Dutch nuts and seeds hub near Rotterdam, faces mild temperatures around 17–22°C with scattered showers and a yellow thunderstorm warning for South Holland, potentially causing only minor, short‑term port or road delays if storms materialise.

📉 Market Tone & Short‑Term Outlook

Recent commentary highlights that Indian cashew kernel prices have edged slightly higher on the back of tight RCN, yet the broader global kernel market—India, Vietnam and the EU—remains in a firm‑sideways pattern, with soft import demand and freight issues preventing any strong rally. Export dashboards confirm that Indian W320 export prices stay above Vietnamese levels on a USD/ton basis, reflecting a quality and branding premium, but the price gap is narrowing as Vietnamese offers remain competitive.

For the Netherlands, kernel availability is comfortable due to steady flows from Vietnam and India into Rotterdam, with EU buyers still price‑sensitive and favouring lower grades and broken kernels for snack and ingredient use. Given the absence of major fresh weather or policy shocks, the most probable near‑term scenario is continued range‑bound trading, with modest softness in lower grades offset by a floor from expensive RCN and cautious seller behaviour.

📆 Trading Guidance (Next 3–7 Days)

• Buyers (EU / NL): Use the slight easing in Dordrecht WW320 and broken grades to extend coverage modestly, but avoid over‑buying as global fundamentals still point to sideways prices rather than a clear downtrend.
• Indian exporters: Maintain offer discipline on premium whole grades (W240/W320); consider small discounts on LWP/SWP to stay competitive against Vietnam, especially for Middle East and EU buyers facing freight uncertainty.
• EU importers with Vietnam exposure: Diversify origin mix between India and Vietnam to hedge raw nut and freight risks, particularly given tight African RCN and rapidly growing Vietnamese export volumes.
• Short‑term traders: The risk/reward for aggressive short positions is limited while RCN remains tight; focus on intra‑grade spreads (whole vs broken, organic vs conventional) rather than outright price bets.

📍 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• India – New Delhi (FOB/FCA kernels): Prices expected to remain broadly stable with a mild firm undertone for whole grades (W240/W320) and sideways to slightly softer bias for LWP/SWP, tracking tight RCN but cautious export demand.
• Netherlands – Dordrecht (FCA kernels): WW320, LWP and SWP likely to trade in a narrow sideways band with a slight soft bias as EU buyers test lower bids; any weather‑related logistics noise around Rotterdam should be temporary and not fundamentally price‑moving.