Cashew Market Holds Firm as Tight African Supply Meets Steady Kernel Demand

The global cashew market is trading firm but cautious. Tight raw cashew nut (RCN) supply in West Africa, strong import demand from Vietnam and steady kernel offtake are supporting prices, even as logistics disruptions and softer segments such as Indian domestic pieces cap the upside.

Overall, the market is balanced rather than bullish: processors are well covered for nearby needs, but raw material tightness and external risks limit any meaningful downside. Participants increasingly favor short-term, demand-linked purchases instead of speculative positions, while monitoring weather and freight developments closely.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Kernel prices are broadly stable to slightly firmer across key origins. Indicative export values (converted to EUR) show Indian and Vietnamese whole grades clustered in the mid- to high-single digits per kg, with only modest moves over April.

Origin	Grade	Terms	Latest price (EUR/kg)	1–2 week change
India (New Delhi)	W320, conventional	FOB	≈ 6.9	Slightly firmer
India (New Delhi)	W450, conventional	FOB	≈ 6.2	Stable to firm
Vietnam (Hanoi)	WW320, conventional	FOB	≈ 6.8	Broadly steady
Vietnam (Hanoi)	WW240, conventional	FOB	≈ 7.7	Sideways
Netherlands (Dordrecht)	WW320, conventional	FCA	≈ 4.9	Stable

RCN values in West Africa remain underpinned by tightening late-season supply and quality concerns. Exporter bids in Nigeria around USD 1.32–1.36/kg (≈ EUR 1.20–1.25/kg) and farmgate levels of USD 1.10–1.17/kg (≈ EUR 1.00–1.08/kg) reflect a mild correction but not a bearish market.

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

On supply, Vietnam has imported more than 1 million tonnes of RCN between January and mid‑April, a strong year‑on‑year increase that signals confidence in processing demand and ensures good kernel availability in the near term. This aggressive procurement comes as domestic crops in Vietnam remain structurally insufficient, reinforcing dependence on West African and Cambodian raw nuts.

West Africa is moving into a tighter phase. In Côte d’Ivoire, arrivals have surpassed about 940,000 tonnes and the season is nearing its close, with heat and early rains starting to pressure quality and reduce marketable stocks. Ghana’s weaker harvest and strong early buying have drawn down local inventories, pushing traders to lean more heavily on Ivorian supply. Nigeria still sees ongoing arrivals and steady demand, but only slightly softer prices, underlining that the regional RCN market remains fundamentally tight rather than oversupplied.

Global production for the 2026 West African cashew season is expected to be broadly stable in the range of 400,000–500,000 tonnes for key origins under consideration, with export price indications for RCN projected around USD 1,650–1,750/tonne (≈ EUR 1,520–1,610/tonne) depending on quality and origin. This implies no major surplus is on the horizon and helps anchor kernel prices.

📊 Fundamentals & Regional Demand

Kernel demand is holding up well at the global level. Vietnam’s kernel exports in mid‑April exceeded 30,000 tonnes, slightly above last year’s pace and in line with broader trade data that show Q1 2026 export volumes and values marginally higher year‑on‑year. This resilience is notable given disruptions in some Middle Eastern markets linked to geopolitical tensions and freight routing issues.

However, demand performance is uneven by segment and region. Domestic consumption in India is particularly weak for lower‑grade pieces, constrained by softer hospitality and foodservice activity amid higher operating costs, including fuel and cooking gas. This is weighing on piece‑grade values and discouraging more aggressive raw nut buying from some Indian processors, even as whole grades remain reasonably well supported by export channels.

Middle Eastern buyers, an increasingly important outlet in recent years, are more cautious due to higher freight, longer transit times and regional uncertainty. While overall kernel offtake into the US, EU and parts of Asia remains steady, the absence of a strong, synchronized demand impulse keeps the market in a “firm but not bullish” configuration.

🌦️ Weather, Logistics & External Risks

Weather in West Africa is transitioning from the peak harvest season toward early rains. In Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, early showers combined with prior heat are already raising quality concerns, particularly for late‑harvested nuts that may suffer from higher moisture and lower outturn. This reinforces the perception that top‑quality RCN from the 2026 crop will be finite, lending additional support to prices into the second half of the year.

Logistics remain a key uncertainty across the cashew value chain. Port congestion, limited vessel availability and volatile freight rates—especially on routes touching the Middle East and Red Sea region—are increasing landed costs and lengthening lead times. These factors are encouraging more conservative purchasing strategies, with buyers favoring shorter shipment windows and focusing on nearby coverage rather than long‑dated forward positions.

Currency fluctuations and fuel price volatility add another layer of risk, squeezing processor and trader margins and making basis levels more sensitive. In some African origins, policy debates around promoting domestic processing (including talk of potential RCN export restrictions) are also being closely monitored, although for now trade flows continue, and the primary constraints are logistical and quality‑related rather than regulatory.

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

With supply constraints in West Africa and steady kernel exports from Vietnam, the near‑term outlook is for a balanced yet cautious market. Export price indications for RCN around USD 1,650–1,750/tonne (≈ EUR 1,520–1,610/tonne) and stable kernel benchmarks suggest a sideways to mildly firm price trajectory into early May, barring a major demand shock or freight disruption.

• Buyers (roasters, retailers): Use current stability to secure coverage through Q3 2026, especially for premium whole grades (W240/W320). Avoid over‑extending on low‑grade pieces where Indian demand is soft and further relative weakness is possible.
• Processors: Maintain disciplined RCN procurement, prioritizing high‑quality lots from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana while late‑season quality risks are elevated. Lock in freight where possible to cap logistics‑related margin erosion.
• Traders: Focus on short to medium tenor positions tied to confirmed demand. Basis and quality spreads are likely to remain attractive, but outright price moves are expected to be contained within a firm range.

📍 3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• Vietnam kernels (FOB Hanoi, WW240/WW320): Sideways to slightly firm; high‑quality demand and tight RCN limit any downside.
• India kernels (FOB/FCA New Delhi, W320/W450): Stable with mild upward bias on raw material tightness, but capped by weak domestic pieces demand.
• EU spot kernels (FCA Netherlands, WW320/LWP/SWP): Broadly steady; importers well covered, with freight and FX the main short‑term swing factors.