Chinese pine nut FOB prices out of Dalian are steady to slightly firmer, reflecting constrained global supplies and cautious export interest, with little near‑term downside despite softer demand in some destination markets.
Chinese-origin pine nuts continue to trade in a narrow range as exporters in Dalian balance limited 2025/26 global availability with relatively calm short-term buying interest. Tight international supplies after a sharp production downturn and previously strong price gains are encouraging sellers to defend current offer levels rather than chase volume. While broader tree‑nut trade and freight conditions remain volatile, there are currently no acute weather or logistics shocks in Liaoning that would quickly loosen the market. Overall, the tone is stable-to-firm, with buyers advised to secure coverage early for any larger nearby needs.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Pine nuts
950
FOB 15.95 €/kg
(from CN)
Pine nuts
1200
FOB 15.35 €/kg
(from CN)
📈 Prices & Spreads
FOB Dalian prices for Chinese pine nuts are stable compared with late April, with only marginal week‑on‑week changes. The market shows a modest quality spread, but no clear directional move over the last two weeks.
| Product | Origin | Location / Term | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | 1W Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine nuts, type 950 | CN | Dalian, FOB | ≈ €14.75 | Flat vs. previous update |
| Pine nuts, type 1200 | CN | Dalian, FOB | ≈ €14.20 | Flat vs. previous update |
Indicative EUR values are converted from USD-level export talk using recent EUR/USD averages and rounded for clarity. The narrow premium for type 950 over 1200 reflects quality and size differentials but also similar supply constraints across grades.
🌍 Supply & Demand
On the supply side, the latest industry data for 2025/26 indicate a sharp drop in global pine nut production and a roughly one‑third contraction in total available supplies year-on-year, with China remaining the dominant exporter but facing reduced volumes. This tight fundamental backdrop underpins current Chinese FOB offers, despite lacklustre spot buying from some Western markets.
Domestic Chinese consumption shows signs of being curbed by high retail prices, as reported by recent trade analyses highlighting that elevated pine nut prices are starting to weigh on demand in China’s snack segment. At the same time, competition from cheaper nuts such as cashews and peanuts has increased, especially as cashew export flows into China have accelerated again in March on improved availability from Vietnam. This substitution risk caps near‑term upside, but has not yet been sufficient to push pine nut exporters into meaningful discounts.
📊 Fundamentals & External Drivers
Broader tree‑nut trade remains influenced by shifting freight costs and macro factors, including higher fuel surcharges on Chinese domestic and regional transport following the Iran-related oil price spike in April 2026. While pine nuts are a niche segment compared to almonds or pistachios, higher bunker and trucking costs help keep export floor prices elevated, as logistics make up a notable share of the value chain for low‑density kernel shipments.
Recent international tree‑nut market updates point to generally ample supply in several competing nut categories, but maintain the view that pine nuts are one of the tighter markets within the group. The combination of structurally limited harvest areas, labour‑intensive collection and the recent production downturn makes a quick supply response unlikely for 2026, reinforcing the current sideways‑to‑firm price bias.
🌦 Weather & Growing Conditions (CN Focus)
Weather conditions in Liaoning, including the Dalian area, are seasonally mild moving into early May, with forecasts indicating no extreme heat or cold that would immediately threaten local pine stands. Regional outlooks for neighbouring coastal and border areas also show typical early‑May patterns with some cloud, moderate winds and no major storm systems flagged over the next few days.
Given that the main pine nut harvest in China occurs much later in the year, current short‑term weather has limited direct impact on 2026 crop potential. However, the absence of early-season stress is modestly supportive for yield prospects and does not add any new bearish element to the already tight 2025/26 supply balance.
📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Recommendations
- Price direction (1–2 weeks): Sideways to slightly firm. Tight global availability and sticky logistics costs continue to prevent meaningful downside in Chinese FOB offers, while demand headwinds and substitution into cheaper nuts limit strong rallies.
- For industrial buyers: Consider layering in coverage for Q3–Q4 needs on current flat prices, especially for premium grades, as later‑season supply disappointments or freight shocks could quickly translate into higher offers.
- For traders/exporters: Maintain offer discipline rather than undercutting, focusing on value‑added grades and reliable logistics. Monitor cross‑nut spreads versus cashews and pistachios closely to anticipate any further demand loss in price‑sensitive snack applications.
- For retailers in China: Explore smaller pack sizes and blended nut mixes to mitigate consumer resistance to high pine nut shelf prices while preserving category presence.
📉 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (CN, FOB Dalian)
Based on current fundamentals, logistics and weather, the following directional view applies for the next three trading days (May 3–5, 2026):
| Product | Region / Term | Current Level (EUR/kg) | 3‑Day Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pine nuts, type 950 | CN, Dalian FOB | ≈ €14.75 | Stable |
| Pine nuts, type 1200 | CN, Dalian FOB | ≈ €14.20 | Stable to slightly firm |
No significant price moves are expected over the very short term unless there is an abrupt shift in export demand or a new macro/logistics shock. Buyers should not rely on cheaper levels emerging imminently and are advised to treat any small downward moves as tactical opportunities rather than the start of a broader downtrend.
