According to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the real (price-adjusted) turnover of all retail enterprises in Germany declined by 2.4% and the nominal (not price-adjusted) turnover by 1.3%, on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis, in March 2023 from February 2023. Compared with March 2022, the retail trade recorded an 8.6% decrease in turnover in real terms and a nominal decline of 0.2%. The difference between the results in real and nominal terms reflects the significant price increases in retail trade. Compared with March 2019, the corresponding month before the Covid-19 pandemic, retail turnover in real terms decreased by 1.3% in March 2023.
Retail turnover, March 2023 (provisional, calendar and seasonally adjusted)
-2.4% on the previous month (in real terms)
-1.3% on the previous month (in nominal terms)
-8.6% on the same month a year earlier (in real terms)
-0.2% on the same month a year earlier (in nominal terms)
Food retail trade records sharpest year-on-year decline in sales since 1994
In March 2023, real turnover in the retail sale of groceries fell by 1.1% compared with the previous month. Compared to March 2022, real sales recorded a decline of 10.3%. This is the sharpest year-on-year decline in turnover since the start of the time series in 1994. One reason for this decline is likely to be the further significant increase in food prices in March 2023 (+22.3% compared to March 2022). The increase in food prices in March was thus three times higher than the overall inflation rate. Compared to the significant decline in real sales, nominal sales in March 2023 recorded an increase of 4.7% compared to the same month last year. Real food sales in March 2023 were 5.6% below the pre-crisis level of March 2019.
Sales in the non-food retail trade as well as in the Internet and mail order business decline significantly compared to the same month of the previous year
Real non-food retail sales in March 2023 decreased 2.3% from the previous month and were down 7.2% from the same month last year. However, compared to the pre-Corona level of March 2019, sales in this sector increased by 4.6%. In the internet and mail order sector, real sales in March 2023 were down 4.8% from the previous month, as well as down 8.4% from the same month last year. However, sales were 18.0% higher than in March 2019.
In all reports on business cycle indicators, the different comparison periods must be taken into account. The focus of economic monitoring is on the comparison of calendar- and seasonally-adjusted values with the previous month/quarter. This gives an indication of the short-term economic trend. The calendar-adjusted comparison with the previous year serves as a longer-term comparison of levels and is independent of seasonal fluctuations and calendar effects. As a result of the Corona crisis and the war in Ukraine, there may currently be very different results in the previous month/quarter and year-on-year comparisons.
Source: Destasis