Significant Changes in Production Forecast
The forecast for California’s almond production in 2024 is projected at 2.80 billion meat pounds, marking a 7% decrease from May’s subjective forecast and a 13% increase over last year’s crop of 2.47 billion meat pounds. This estimate is based on 1.38 million bearing acres.
Nonpareil Variety Leads Production
The Nonpareil variety, a key contributor to California’s almond output, is forecasted to produce 1.10 billion meat pounds. This is a 17% increase compared to last year’s deliveries of 941 million meat pounds and represents 39% of the state’s total almond production.
Weather and Growing Conditions
The 2024 almond crop benefited from mostly favorable weather during the bloom period, which started in the second week of February and concluded by mid-March. Bee hours, crucial for pollination, were significantly higher than the previous year. April’s wet and warm conditions increased pest and disease pressure, but dry conditions and mild temperatures in May were beneficial for the developing crop. Multiple heat waves in June and July required growers to enhance irrigation efforts.
Harvest Schedule and Nut Set
The almond harvest is expected to proceed on schedule. The average nut set per tree is 4,072, a 3% increase compared to 2023. For the Nonpareil variety, the average nut set is 4,137, also a 3% increase from last year. The average kernel weight across all varieties sampled was 1.61 grams, a 4% decrease from the 2023 average, while the Nonpareil kernel weight was 1.64 grams, down 3% from last year. A total of 98.9% of all nuts sized were sound.
Varietal Nut Counts and Sizes
- Independence Nuts: Nut counts decreased to 3,448 per tree from last year’s 4,048, leading to larger kernel sizes.
- Monterey Nuts: Nut counts increased to 4,257 per tree from 3,598 last year, resulting in smaller kernel sizes.
- Butte Nuts: Nut counts fell to 3,316 per tree from last year’s 4,043, leading to larger kernel sizes.
Market Implications
With the crop forecast at 2.80 billion pounds, 200 million pounds less than the 3.0 billion Subjective Crop Estimate, almond prices are expected to remain firm or increase. Some industry experts predict a price rise of 15 to 20 cents per pound. The market had anticipated a 3.0 billion pound crop, and the revised lower estimate, combined with smaller carry-in stocks, suggests a tighter total supply for the upcoming year.
The 2024 almond crop forecast highlights the dynamic nature of agricultural production and its sensitivity to weather and market conditions. As the industry adjusts to these changes, stakeholders should be prepared for potential price fluctuations and supply challenges in the coming year.