The global cardamom market remains remarkably resilient, defying downward pressures typically associated with surging arrivals. At today’s KCPMC Neelamalai auction, a substantially high volume of 61,342 kg of small cardamom changed hands, yet prices stayed elevated at an average of $32.68 per kg—only a slight decline from the previous session’s $32.90 per kg. Top-quality lots continue to fetch between $31.07 and $32.26 per kg, underlining a buoyant market tone supported by robust demand from both traders and exporters. Even with increased supply, the persistent strength in buying interest is insulating prices from any significant correction.
Market analysts note a lack of bearish signals; instead, stable demand and firm quality arrivals set the stage for potential price consolidation or minor gains in the near term. The overall market sentiment remains positive, particularly for high-grade and organic supplies, with Indian cardamom commanding premium rates on the global and European FOB markets. For exporters and importers alike, current dynamics call for close monitoring of auction outputs, weather trends in key growing regions, and evolving consumer demand in the Middle East and EU—both vital trade destinations. In summary, the cardamom market stands as a hallmark of stability and strength in the broader spices complex, with limited downside potential in the coming days.
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Cardamom powder
FOB 25.20 €/kg
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green 6.0-6.5 mm
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📈 Cardamom Prices at a Glance
| Product | Grade/Type | Organic | Origin | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom powder | — | Yes | IN | 25.20 | 25.41 | -0.83 | 2025-07-26 |
| Cardamom whole | Green, 7.5-8 mm | Yes | IN | 18.33 | 18.48 | -0.81 | 2025-07-26 |
| Cardamom whole | Green 6.0-6.5 mm, 99% purity | Yes | IN | 16.53 | 16.67 | -0.84 | 2025-07-26 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- High Arrivals, Firm Prices: Over 61,000 kg of small cardamom at the latest auction—historically high arrivals—have not depressed prices, underlining resilient demand.
- Active Exporter Buying: Ongoing interest from Middle Eastern and EU buyers, particularly for high-grade Indian cardamom.
- Steady Domestic Consumption: Continued solid demand from India’s food, beverage, and flavoring sectors.
📊 Fundamental Insights
- Current auction average at $32.68/kg, only marginally down from July 17’s $32.90/kg.
- Top grades remain in strong demand, with little near-term downside risk.
- Weekly price change on European markets is modest (less than 1% lower across key grades), reflecting general stability despite short-term fluctuations.
- Large-scale arrivals could pressure inventory if unmatched by demand, but this is not evident at present.
☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Kerala & Tamil Nadu (India’s main cardamom belts):
- This week: Normal monsoon activity, occasional scattered showers—favorable for pod set and fruit development.
- 3-5 Day Forecast: No severe weather events expected. Moderate rainfall will aid crop maturation, though excessive rain could be a risk for fungal issues in isolated areas.
- Potential Effect: Weather neutrality is supportive, with no immediate threats to yield or quality. Any abrupt changes will be closely watched by the trade.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
- India: The world’s largest producer, with 2024 harvest expected to be above average if current growing conditions persist. Stock levels remain moderate as high exports absorb surplus.
- Guatemala: Stable output with moderate stock buildup reported; pricing remains competitive but is still at a discount to Indian grade.
- Middle East: Strong import demand (Saudi Arabia, UAE) supports global prices and keeps market focus on Indian supplies.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📦 Buyers: Secure requirements early, particularly for premium/organic grades, as strong demand could tighten high-grade stocks toward the next auction cycle.
- 📤 Sellers: Hold or stagger high-quality lots; upside remains on strong export demand, especially as weather is currently non-disruptive.
- 💱 Traders: Monitor auction volumes, weather, and currency volatility (EUR/USD) for hedging opportunities; the price floor looks robust in the short term.
- 🔔 Risk: Monitor for sudden shifts in monsoon or export restrictions from India, as these could quickly alter price dynamics.
⏳ 3-Day Price Forecast
| Date | KCPMC Auction Avg. (USD/kg) | New Delhi (FOB) Organic (EUR/kg) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-27 | 32.70 | 25.20 | Stable/Firm |
| 2025-07-28 | 32.68 | 25.25 | Steady |
| 2025-07-29 | 32.70-32.80 | 25.35 | Upward Bias Likely |
