The cardamom market is currently exhibiting a phase of stability, with recent developments in Kerala underscoring a classic case of supply outpacing demand. Favorable weather has bolstered the ongoing small cardamom harvest, and this has translated into robust arrivals across auction platforms. Despite the positive supply-side news, demand—especially export orders—remains steady but unexceptional, keeping the market tone subdued. In recent sessions, auction volumes have surprised to the upside, but the corresponding increase in prices has been mild.
Premium quality lots enjoy a marginal edge, but average and lower grades face clear resistance. Producers and traders can take comfort in the consistent prices, while buyers find opportunity in predictable procurement costs. With industry participants signaling a steady production outlook for the 2024–25 season—estimated at 25,000–26,000 tons—supreme volatility is off the cards for now. Market sentiment, weather forecasts, and consumer trends will shape the coming weeks, but sharp rallies seem unlikely in the short term.
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Cardamom powder
FOB 24.73 €/kg
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Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
FOB 17.99 €/kg
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Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
99%
FOB 16.22 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Specification | Location | Closing Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (EUR/kg) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom powder | Organic | New Delhi (FOB) | 24.73 | +0.07 | Stable/Firm |
| Cardamom whole | Green, 8 mm, conventional | New Delhi (FOB) | 24.19 | +0.07 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | Green, 7.5 mm, conventional | New Delhi (FOB) | 23.40 | +0.01 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | Green, 7–7.2 mm, conventional | New Delhi (FOB) | 21.99 | +0.06 | Range-bound |
| Cardamom whole | Green, 6.5–6.8 mm, conventional | New Delhi (FOB) | 21.04 | +0.06 | Subdued |
| Cardamom whole | Green, 7.5–8 mm, organic | New Delhi (FOB) | 17.99 | +0.05 | Subdued |
| Cardamom whole | Green, 6–6.5 mm, organic, 99% | New Delhi (FOB) | 16.22 | +0.04 | Subdued |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Kerala crop arrivals: Recent favorable weather has driven strong arrivals, with major auctions seeing higher-than-expected volumes (90,357 kg at Puttady, 70,727 kg at other centers).
- Production estimate: For 2024–25, output is projected at 25,000–26,000 tons, maintaining steady availability.
- Domestic demand: Remains stable, underpinning floor prices but not driving rallies.
- Export demand: Moderate; limited additional buying interest from key Gulf and EU markets so far this season.
📊 Fundamentals
- Price levels at Indian auctions hover between $29–31 per kg, with premium lots fetching $30.20–31.25/kg.
- Previous year comparison: Last year’s auctions saw greater volatility due to erratic monsoons; this year, improvements in weather and crop health have stabilized sentiment.
- Inventory: Comfortable, with no immediate fears of shortages. Wholesalers holding strategic stocks amid stable demand.
- Speculative activity: Low, as range-bound trading conditions prevail.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact
- Kerala: Next five days forecast some intermittent rainfall; temperatures average 26–29°C, favorable for ripening and ongoing harvest. No stress events anticipated.
- Additional rain in Western Ghats should support remaining harvests, but a surplus is unlikely to affect price floor due to steady off-take.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | Estimated 2024–25 Output (tons) | Change YoY | Stock Situation |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 25,000–26,000 | Unchanged | Ample |
| Guatemala | 30,000 (est.) | Minor gain | Moderate |
| Sri Lanka | 3,000 | Flat | Limited |
📝 Trading Outlook
- Expect continued sideways movement in cardamom prices for the next 2–3 weeks;
- Buyers may book on dips for premium quality lots, as supply will remain good but further price falls are unlikely
- Importers advised to secure forward contracts if targeting premium grades, as new export inquiries could lift prices marginally later in the season
- Short-term traders should avoid leveraged long positions given the capped upside in current conditions
- Monitor weather swings and international demand, especially from Gulf and Southeast Asian countries, as potential shift factors
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Price Range (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB) | 16.20–24.75 | Stable |
| Kerala Auctions (INR converted) | 29.0–31.0 ($/kg) | Stable |
Key Insight: Cardamom market remains well-supplied with limited upside in short term. Weather and demand changes to be closely watched.
