The global cardamom market has entered a period of noteworthy stability, supported by steady demand from both domestic consumers and export markets. Recent favorable weather in Kerala, India’s primary cardamom-producing region, has rejuvenated small cardamom crops, boosting the outlook for the upcoming harvest. Notably, recent rains have improved crop conditions and enhanced market arrivals, but the influx of supply has not translated into any major downward corrections in prices. Instead, prices remain buoyant as robust export demand—particularly in the Gulf and Middle East markets—continues to absorb available stocks.
Domestic consumption is also sustained by festive-season requirements, further underpinning market confidence. Experts see little sign of bearishness on the horizon, pointing to the likelihood of only minor market softening unless export orders or local consumption dips unexpectedly. However, the market’s sensitivity to weather developments in Kerala remains pivotal; excessive rain could disrupt yields, while continued favorable weather may bolster production and arrivals. In sum, the cardamom market appears poised to sustain its current firm undertone, with moderate bullish potential in the coming weeks.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
FOB 17.96 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
99%
FOB 16.20 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green, 8 mm
FOB 24.17 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Grade/Size | Origin | FOB Price (EUR/kg) |
Previous (EUR/kg) |
Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom whole | green, 8 mm | IN (New Delhi) | 24.17 | 24.31 | 2025-09-19 | Stable/Firm |
| Cardamom whole | green 7.5 mm | IN (New Delhi) | 23.37 | 23.51 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | green 7-7.2 mm | IN (New Delhi) | 21.95 | 22.09 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.5-6.8 mm | IN (New Delhi) | 21.01 | 21.14 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | green,7.5-8 mm (organic) | IN (New Delhi) | 17.96 | 18.07 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.0-6.5 mm (organic, 99%) | IN (New Delhi) | 16.20 | 16.30 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Cardamom powder | – | IN (New Delhi) | 24.70 | 24.85 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
India (Kerala market): $29.34–$30.55 per kg (previous week: $28.98–$30.30 per kg). Premium: up to $30.91 per kg.
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Weather: Recent favorable rains in Kerala have improved growing conditions and boosted production prospects, increasing arrivals to physical markets.
- Export demand: Remains robust, led by Middle East and Gulf countries. No signs of slowdown in near-term orders.
- Domestic demand: Strengthened by the festive season and ongoing consumption in key regions.
- Arrivals: Improved supply but strong demand is keeping prices supported, preventing major corrections.
- Market Sentiment: Bullish undertone, supported by fundamentals and real-time consumption trends.
📊 Fundamentals & Global Picture
| Country | Estimated Production (‘000 MT) | Stock Change YoY | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 25 | +2% | Favorable |
| Guatemala | 32 | -1% | Slight dip |
| Sri Lanka | 3 | 0% | Stable |
| Middle East (major importer) | N/A | +3% | Strong import demand |
- India and Guatemala continue to dominate world cardamom supply.
- India’s output is expected to rise if Kerala’s weather remains favorable.
- Global stocks remain tight, supporting prices internationally.
☀️ Weather Outlook
- Kerala: Recent moderate to heavy rains have been beneficial, but a further uptick in rainfall could risk excessive moisture, impacting quality and harvesting schedules.
- Forecast (next 7 days): Scattered showers and mild temperatures. Weather risk lies in potential for late-season downpours.
- Effect: Weather will play a decisive role; excessive rains could cause local shortages if harvest delays rise, while good conditions may boost yields.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect continued firmness in prices due to steady demand and watchful supply growth.
- Any weather disruptions in Kerala could spark volatility; market participants should monitor rainfall intensity daily.
- Bullish undertone persists, but minor corrections are possible if export flows soften or arrivals jump unexpectedly.
- Short-term: Consider holding long positions, with quick profit-taking on price spikes above recent highs.
- Procurement should be prioritized during dips; festive demand will likely prop up spot prices through quarter-end.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price Range (USD/kg) | Expected 3-Day Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Kerala (India, physical) | 29.34–30.55 | Steady to marginally firm |
| New Delhi (FOB, premium grade) | 24.17 (EUR/kg) | Stable |
| Guatemala (FOB, estimate) | 25.00–27.00 | Stable |
